Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
417 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-083-030930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
417 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-030930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
417 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             2 SW WAKE FOREST        35.95N 78.54W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
544 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             2 SSW WAKE FOREST       35.95N 78.53W
05/02/2016  E1.75 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ008-009-022230-
VANCE   NC-GRANVILLE   NC-
545 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VANCE AND
NORTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OXFORD...STOVALL...SATTERWHITE POINT MARINA...DABNEY...STEELE CREEK
MARINA & CAMPGROUND...KERR LAKE...BULLOCKSVILLE...JOHN H KERR RESERVOIR
AND TUNGSTEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7831 3628 7855 3637 7875 3654 7869
      3654 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 237DEG 18KT 3638 7860

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
547 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             3 SE YOUNGSVILLE        36.00N 78.43W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ010-011-026-022245-
WARREN   NC-HALIFAX   NC-FRANKLIN   NC-
550 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WARREN...
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF LOUISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE RAPIDS...WARRENTON...NORLINA...LITTLETON...WELDON...MACON...
CENTERVILLE...ROANOKE RAPIDS LAKE...MEDOC MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND
SOUTHPOINTE AND MORNINGSTAR MARINAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3648 7765 3645 7763 3643 7760 3618 7795
      3619 7797 3618 7798 3619 7799 3620 7801
      3608 7809 3620 7829 3654 7820 3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 224DEG 29KT 3620 7811

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
558 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ007-008-024-025-022300-
PERSON   NC-DURHAM   NC-ORANGE   NC-GRANVILLE   NC-
558 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

 ...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF PERSON...NORTHWESTERN DURHAM...NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND GRANVILLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 557 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PROSPECT HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OXFORD...ROXBORO...ROUGEMONT...CONCORD...STEM...STOVALL...LAKE BUTNER...LAKE
MICHIE...SURL AND BETHEL HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7851 3621 7852 3611 7912 3624 7919
      3624 7915 3654 7914 3654 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 223DEG 29KT 3629 7912

ELLIS