Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Raleigh, NC

964 
WWUS52 KRAH 121818
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
218 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

NCC051-093-121845-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160512T1845Z/
HOKE NC-CUMBERLAND NC-
218 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HOKE AND WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 216 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF FORT
BRAGG NEAR THE HOKE AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY LINE ON RAEFORD ROAD. THIS
STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED NICKEL SIZED
HAIL.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT BRAGG...POPE AFB...HOPE MILLS...SPRING LAKE...ROCKFISH
AND BONNIE DOONE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 7900 3495 7903 3494 7906 3494 7914
      3512 7918 3520 7890 3493 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 258DEG 4KT 3506 7905 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

13

345 
WWUS52 KRAH 121842
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

NCC051-093-121851-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160512T1845Z/
HOKE NC-CUMBERLAND NC-
242 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOKE AND WESTERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM EDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED
AND THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. STORMS CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP IN THE AREA, HOWEVER, SO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR 
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE THE LATEST INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3494 7900 3495 7903 3494 7906 3494 7914
      3512 7918 3520 7890 3493 7885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 258DEG 4KT 3506 7905 

$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EDT thu MAY 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary frontal zone over central NC this morning will
retreat north into southern VA throughout the afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west, then cross
the Middle Atlantic region on Fri.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Thursday...

The meandering front over NC/VA the past few days has made a strong
push south this morning, resulting in stratus as far south as
Lexington to Sanford to Goldsboro.  The Clayton Wind Profiler shows
northeasterly flow deepening to around 700ft and a recent PIREP at
RDU indicated the stratus extends up to 2200ft.  Needless to say,
the stratus is a bit thicker than models projected 24 hours ago and
will take longer to erode from south to north today. LAV/LAMP
guidance suggests mid 70s north to mid 80s south, which is likely
the right direction for forecast highs.  Strong destabilization is
forecast around the southern and western sides of the retreating
stratus/front given dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s and ample low-
level moisture in general (925mb dewpoints > 15C). While NAM
forecast MLCAPE of 3000 J/KG, GFS and RAP values of 2000-2500 J/KG
are quite possible across the southern CWA.  Like yesterday,
convergence near the front and differential heating appear to be the
most evident triggers for convection, with some weak perturbations
upstream over eastern TN possibly to have some influence later this
afternoon.  Weak ridging aloft will keep deep layer shear weaker
than past days (only 20kt from 0-6km at KGSO this morning), though
the front and/or perturbations aloft may locally enhance the shear
to 25-30kt, supporting some loosely organized clusters of storms.
Locally heavy rainfall may also be more of an issue today within
these slower moving clusters. Changes to POPs have been minor this
morning, maintaining the trend of chance POPs increasing from
southwest to northeast with the retreating front. -22

Convective coverage is likely to diminish throughout the evening,
given both nocturnal and (probably) widespread outflow/diabatic
cooling and convective overturning. Convective chances will then
increase late, as stronger QG-forcing for ascent accompanying the
approaching synoptic trough from the Plains states edges east of the
Appalachians. A steady, and probably breezy at times, southerly wind
will discourage fog development and lead to mild and relatively
muggy low temperatures in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.  -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Thursday...

There continues to be more than enough spread in the model depiction
of instability for friday as the cold front pushes into the state.
The highest instability may actually be limited to the far eastern
zones as considerable moisture available (pw's around 1.5
inches) will lead to considerable cloudiness that will
greatly limit instability. The timing of the cold front is not
favorable for strong heating either. We will maintain the highest
POP in the east with lower POP in the west. There may be scattered
showers early in the day which gradually dissipate. Additional
convective develop should occur during the afternoon and last into
the early evening in the east. Highs generally should reach the 80-
85 range with some 70s in the NW. Lows friday night will be mostly
in the 50s with near 60 in the SE, with partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 259 AM Thursday...

Saturday through Sunday night/: A secondary cold front is expected
to push SE through the region Saturday afternoon. Much drier air
will already be in place, but the CAA will lag behind the secondary
front. There may be an isolated light shower or sprinkle with the
front; however, the theme of the day should be warm and breezy.
The skies will be partly sunny. Highs expected to range in the 80s
with some upper 70s NW. Saturday night and Sunday will be much
cooler and dry. Lows with clear skies should dip into the upper 40s
to mid 50s. The highs Sunday should only in the lower to mid 70s.

Monday through Wednesday/: The favored EC ensemble mean indicates a
slower moistening process with the approach of a warm front Monday
night and Tuesday. Monday should still be dry and mild. Lows in the
upper 40s and 50s. Highs Monday will be in the 70s. The chance of
showers are expected to increase Tuesday and continue into
Wednesday. The amount of instability will be in question until the
warm front pushes north of the region by mid-week. Timing is in
question. It appears that the most significant rain will be from the
Appalachians westward instead of east of the Appalachians (at least
until late week). Very warm and increasing humid conditions are
expected in the warm sector by Wed. and Thu. We will trend POP to
show more of a diurnal convective chance Tue. and Wed. per the
latest favored guidance, and less of a all day chance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH tuesday/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

A cold front draped west to east across southern NC will begin to
lift northward this afternoon and evening, with scattered storms
expected to develop along and south of the front.  Meanwhile,
stratus over the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain is finally
scattering from southwest to northeast.  MVFR conditions at KRDU
should become VFR by 19-20z, while MVFR holds on longer at KRWI.
Storms will generally move east-northeast this afternoon, with many
TAF sites having a decent chance of TSRA at least in the vicinity of
the terminal.

Tonight- most of the storms will die off after sunset and a light
south wind will prevail.  A few showers are possible after between
roughly 09z and 13z from KINT to KRDU, while a cold front approaches
from the west.  More substantial showers and storms will be possible
with the cold front, most likely after 15z from KRDU eastward.

Outlook: The passage of the cold front Friday afternoon will usher
in drier air and generally VFR conditions into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26/22
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

NCZ007-021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-131100-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ008>011-026>028-043-131100-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
652 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

NCZ074-075-077-083>086-088-121845-
SCOTLAND   NC-CUMBERLAND   NC-RICHMOND   NC-ANSON   NC-HOKE   NC-
MOORE   NC-HARNETT   NC-MONTGOMERY   NC-
146 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTLAND...
CUMBERLAND...RICHMOND... ANSON...HOKE...MOORE...SOUTHERN HARNETT AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...WADESBORO...RAEFORD...TROY...
FORT BRAGG...PINEHURST...HAMLET AND ABERDEEN.

LAT...LON 3481 8013 3516 8009 3514 8007 3517 8005
      3523 8008 3538 8006 3525 7890 3484 7888
      3484 7891 3492 7896 3495 7904 3483 7919
      3484 7935 3481 7936 3480 7967
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 258DEG 4KT 3500 7918

13