Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Raleigh, NC

855 
WWUS52 KRAH 032028
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCC001-037-081-151-032045-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-160503T2045Z/
RANDOLPH NC-CHATHAM NC-ALAMANCE NC-GUILFORD NC-
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM...SOUTHERN ALAMANCE
AND SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RANDLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...SILER CITY...MEBANE...MCLEANSVILLE...ELON COLLEGE...
GIBSONVILLE...PLEASANT GARDEN...LIBERTY AND HAW RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RALEIGH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 7981 3611 7971 3612 7927 3561 7942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 285DEG 30KT 3588 7965 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL NC. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER
THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF AFTERNOON-EVENING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UNLIKE MONDAY WHEN SHEAR WAS RATHER WEAK...THE
INTRODUCTION OF MID LEVEL JET IN THE 15000-18000FT LAYER WILL
ENHANCE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50KTS. WHILE SBCAPE
VALUES MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS MONDAY AFTERNOON (~3500 J/KG)...STILL
EXPECT RESPECTABLE VALUES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE (PER 12Z GFS)
IN SPITE OF THE DELAY IN SOLAR HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE MORNING
CLOUDS/AREAS OF RAIN.

THE APPROACH OF A S/W EXITING THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
AID IN THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT PRIOR TO 20Z/4 PM. EXPECT STORM STRUCTURE TO BE MULTI-
CELLULAR INITIALLY WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. AFTER 22Z...AS MID
LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES AND LOWER ATMOSPHERE REACHES MAX
INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE STORMS EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EXHIBITING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 2Z AS ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE THOUGH DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 06Z...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NW THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER S/W DROPS SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
FROM THE OH VALLEY.

LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND MORE SO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE MADE
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS LOWER INTO THE MID 50S N THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

L/W TROUGH BEGINS ITS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
PAIR OF DECENT S/WS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SE
U.S. THE LEAD S/W WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WED AM-WED
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHER WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COOL POOL
OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM.  IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. PLAN TO KEEP COVERAGE NO
MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT...CELLS THAT
GROW UP TO 18K-20K FT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS LOW-MID 70S.

THREAT FOR SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEST
IN THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED OMEGA BLOCK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO BOTTOM
OUT OVER ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INITIAL SURGE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE... THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW ROTATES AROUND AND BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE UPPER TROF THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER
IN NUMBER AND FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...AND ENDING IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...FROM MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO VERY LOW
70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW
PUSHES A DRY AND WEAK FRONT BRIEFLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...HOWEVER...WILL BE TO SHIFT THE
OMEGA BLOCK EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE WEST RIDGE LOBE OF THE BLOCK TO
EDGE EAST OVER THE AREA...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND...
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL TOLD...DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE MID 70S SATURDAY TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...TO MOSTLY MID 80S TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND...FROM LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...

VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WAVERING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR BY EVENING. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SPREADING EAST BY 22Z-00Z. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-55KTS. THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ATTENDANT
SUB VFR CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-040930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GREENSBORO        36.09N 79.90W
05/02/2016                   GUILFORD           NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN, FIVE OF WHICH
            FELL ONTO AREA HOMES. QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALSO
            COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ021-038-032000-
DAVIDSON   NC-FORSYTH   NC-
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DAVIDSON
AND SOUTHERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HUNTSVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YADKINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTON-SALEM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...KERNERSVILLE...CLEMMONS...
BERMUDA RUN...HUNTSVILLE...LEWISVILLE...ARCADIA AND WELCOME.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3611 8050 3612 8046 3614 8044 3615 8004
      3573 8006 3588 8042 3589 8041 3589 8037
      3596 8038 3599 8042 3601 8042 3606 8046
      3604 8049 3606 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 287DEG 22KT 3605 8053

23

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NCZ021-022-038-039-032045-
GUILFORD   NC-RANDOLPH   NC-DAVIDSON   NC-FORSYTH   NC-
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF GUILFORD...NORTHERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN DAVIDSON AND SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HIGH POINT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...RANDLEMAN...THOMASVILLE...KERNERSVILLE...
MCLEANSVILLE...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...GIBSONVILLE AND PLEASANT GARDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3614 8015 3617 7954 3572 7955 3590 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 279DEG 27KT 3599 8007

ELLIS