Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Raleigh, NC

631 
WWUS52 KRAH 150209
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCC101-183-150218-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160315T0230Z/
JOHNSTON NC-WAKE NC-
1009 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON AND EAST
CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3564 7777 3584 7826 3587 7828 3589 7830
      3597 7830 3610 7781 3594 7780 3587 7783
      3585 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 252DEG 20KT 3596 7816 

$$

NCC069-127-195-150230-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160315T0230Z/
NASH NC-FRANKLIN NC-WILSON NC-
1009 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
FOR NASH...SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1008 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNN...OR 11
MILES WEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...NASHVILLE...WILSON...ELM CITY...DORTCHES...BAILEY...
BUNN...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG AND SPRING HOPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PROUCING LARGE HAIL CAPABLE OF BREAKING
WINDOWS... DAMAGING ROOFS AND DENTING VEHICLES. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 7777 3584 7826 3587 7828 3589 7830
      3597 7830 3610 7781 3594 7780 3587 7783
      3585 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 252DEG 20KT 3596 7816 

$$

WSS

208 
WWUS52 KRAH 150225
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCC069-127-195-150235-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-160315T0230Z/
NASH NC-FRANKLIN NC-WILSON NC-
1025 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NASH...SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN
AND CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3564 7777 3584 7826 3587 7828 3589 7830
      3597 7830 3610 7781 3594 7780 3587 7783
      3585 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 255DEG 19KT 3596 7816 

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOVER
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STALL OUT
OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER OF NC... THE STRATUS ELSEWHERE HAS
LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING OVER THE SRN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS... WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP
FROM THE TRIANGLE SW TOWARD ROCKINGHAM. THESE WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD ENE INTO MARKEDLY MORE MOIST
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE
ERN CAROLINAS -- SE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL KY/TN -
- AND ITS ATTENDANT DPVA ALONG WITH A MAX IN STJ-INDUCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THIS CONVECTION.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND RISING... WITH
INCOMING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS
ALREADY UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
SO SEE NO REASON WHY THESE WON'T CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE...
PARTICULARLY WITH -10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE UP TO 400 J/KG. WILL FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LIKELY
GENERATING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
PIVOT ENE OVER WRN/NRN NC WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
BE A BIT LOWER. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH NEAR AND
SOON AFTER SUNSET AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED DIP IN THE HIGH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE BETTER KINEMATICS SHOULD HELP BOOST STORM
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AREAWIDE... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. FOLLOWING
THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TIMING... WE SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE NE CWA NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM
SW TO NE LATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NE CWA COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS BEFORE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE
VERY LATE TONIGHT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. AFTER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE... EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S (NW TO SE). -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING A S/W RIDGE TO CROSS OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY-
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S FAR NE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO
DEPART...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. CONTINUED MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS 55-60.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT TO SWING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION; THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS CENTRAL
NC DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT IS CROSSING
THE REGION. IF THE FASTER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES...850MB TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY
OFFSET/LIMIT THE COLD AIR.  WITH THICKNESSES COMPARABLE TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND LOW LEVEL SW-WESTERLY FLOW FACTORED IN...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
VALUES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR
MARCH 16TH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER GOES A CHANGE.

A SERIES OF S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE LEAD S/W AND SFC
FRONT THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING MOISTURE ADVECTION
LIMITED DUE TO WLY FLOW. STILL COULD SEE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON THU. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY
AIR RIDGE BUILDS/EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WHILE A MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S/W
TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
INDUCE SFC LOW GENERATION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF COAST
SATURDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
CAROLINAS. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC PATTERN SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HYBRID OR INSITU DAMMING EVENT.  THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN THREAT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TRENDED DOWNWARD...STARTING OUT IN THE
70S THURSDAY...60S FRIDAY...AND 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND
50S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WITH 30S POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...SOME
RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CURRENT STORMS LOOK TO
MOST IMMEDIATELY IMPACT KRDU AND EVENTUALLY KRWI...HOWEVER THE
ADDITIONAL STORMS COMING INTO CENTRAL NC WILL PARTICULARLY AFFECT
KINT/KGSO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT AT FAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...
EXITING OUR NORTHEAST BY APPROXIMATELY 06Z. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING (FROM 08Z
TO 16Z)...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. SURFACE WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LINGERING...HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BECOME MAINLY WNW OR NW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH SAT. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA... BUT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WOULD BE
BRIEF. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH.

RDU     86/1945
GSO     85/1945
FAY     87/1945

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC/GIH
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
514 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
856 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             5 NE RDU INTERNATIONAL  35.92N  78.71W
03/14/2016  M1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON RAY ROAD NEAR WOOD VALLEY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600527

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
917 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DURHAM            35.97N  78.95W
03/14/2016  M1.25 INCH       DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600528

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
932 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             2 NNW DURHAM            36.01N  78.94W
03/14/2016  M1.00 INCH       DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600529

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             2 NNE WAKE FOREST       36.00N  78.51W
03/14/2016  M0.88 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WALL RD NEAR HARRIS ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600531

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
939 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             WAKE FOREST             35.97N  78.52W
03/14/2016  M1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WAKE FOREST

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600532

KRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

NCZ083-150245-
ANSON NC-
943 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

 ...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ANSON
COUNTY AFTER 10 PM EDT...

AT 939 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MINERAL SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THE STORMS SHOULD ENTER WESTERN ANSON COUNTY BETWEEN
1010 AND 1025 PM EDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WADESBORO...ANSONVILLE...POLKTON...LILESVILLE...MORVEN...PEACHLAND...
MCFARLAN AND WHITE STORE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3506 8029 3512 8008 3508 8000 3510 7997
      3484 7991 3482 7992 3482 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 257DEG 29KT 3489 8062

WSS