Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Raleigh, NC

587 
WWUS52 KRAH 271917
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
317 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

NCC037-085-105-271945-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-160727T1945Z/
HARNETT NC-CHATHAM NC-LEE NC-
317 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL HARNETT...SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND CENTRAL LEE
COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF
SANFORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...LILLINGTON...BROADWAY...SEMINOLE...DUNCAN...OLIVIA...
RAVEN ROCK STATE PARK AND SHEARON HARRIS RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7915 3540 7918 3547 7920 3556 7921
      3560 7897 3555 7882 3532 7879 3534 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 265DEG 14KT 3549 7900 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRD

684 
WWUS52 KRAH 271933
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

NCC037-085-105-271942-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-160727T1945Z/
HARNETT NC-CHATHAM NC-LEE NC-
333 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HARNETT...SOUTHEASTERN
CHATHAM AND CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3534 7915 3540 7918 3547 7920 3556 7921
      3560 7897 3555 7882 3532 7879 3534 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 265DEG 17KT 3550 7891 

$$

KRD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
242 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.Synopsis...
Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through
Thursday, bringing continued hot and humid conditions to central NC.
The chance for afternoon storms will increase toward the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1112 AM Wednesday...

Today: Persistent mid/upper level anticyclone located just to the
south/southeast of central NC will continue to provide the region
with hot and humid conditions with another day of afternoon temps in
the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 103-109 degree
range (highest east and south again). Given the consecutive days of
heat index values of around 100/low 100s across the northwest
piedmont and warm overnight lows have decided to expand the heat
advisory to encompass the entire area.

Strong surface heating within the high PW air mass in place will
support isolated to scattered convection this afternoon, though the
remnant outflow boundary from last night's convection could lead to
convective initiation. Proximity to the modest 30kt mid-level flow
over the Mid-Atlantic states, on the northern periphery the upper
anticyclone, could support a few severe clusters, especially across
the northern half of the forecast area. The primary threat again
will be locally damaging wind gusts. Given PW's around 2 inches+
heavy rain will be possible, with a threat of localized flooding if
any clusters slowly track across an urban area.

Tonight: Most convection will generally die off by late evening with
another warm night expected. Expect lows temps tonight to generally
be in the mid to upper 70s. Can't completely rule out additional
weak disturbance tracking across northern portions of the area
overnight, possibly sparking a shower or storm, though think any
activity will be quite isolated as we should still be under the
general influence from the nearby mid/upper level ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

Thursday: The persistent mid/upper level ridge will again provide
central NC with another hot and humid day for Thursday, with a the
main threat of storms across the northern half of the area again.
Additional strong to severe storms will be possible in the late
afternoon/evening, with the main threat again from locally damaging
wind gusts along with a localized flooding threat (mainly urban
areas) and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Expect high temps
will gain be in the mid to upper 90s, with similar heat index values
and likely another heat advisory.

Model guidance in good agreement in their depiction of a s/w lifting
newd from the TN valley Thursday night, and into the Mid Atlantic
Friday. This feature will aid to enhance low level confluence along
a surface trough across the NC Piedmont, and lead to a decent chance
for scattered convection, especially during max heating Friday
afternoon.  May see a few showers/t-storms late Thu night in
vicinity of the NW Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

A shortwave moving across the Mid Atlantic on Friday will act to
suppress the upper ridge that has been the cause of our extreme
further to the south and east of NC. This will be the beginning of a
pattern change for the region, with troughing eventually dominating
the east coast by early next week. Therefore, for late in the week
and into the weekend, deep southwesterly flow will set up over the
area as the mean trough axis stays to the west. Thus, convective
development will largely hinge on disturbances moving through in the
flow aloft. These disturbances are difficult to time this far out,
therefore will show mostly a diurnal trend on near normal convective
chances. Then, we should see precip chances increasing some more
into early next week as the aforementioned trough begins to progress
east towards our region.

The extreme heat should finally let up as the upper ridge is
suppressed and clouds/precip chances will be on the rise. Thus, am
expecting max temps to trend from the low/mid 90s on Friday and
Saturday to the upper 80s/lower 90s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered convection could impact any of the terminals
this afternoon and evening. A brief period of Sub-VFR conditions
will be possible with the stronger storms, along with gusty winds.
Convection should begin to wane aoa 03z, with generally dry
conditions overnight. Patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus will be
possible again on Thursday morning, especially near locations that
receive heavy rain.

Outlook: Outside of isolated to scattered storms each
afternoon/evening and some patchy early morning fog, expect
predominately VFR conditions through Friday. Rain chances are
expected to increase by the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...CBL/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

NCZ008>011-023>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
SAMPSON-
355 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SPENDING
ANY LENGTH OF TIME OUTDOORS NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT
HEAT ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007-021-022-038-280930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-
355 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. THOSE SPENDING ANY LENGTH OF
TIME OUTDOORS NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT HEAT ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY
PROMPTING ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

NCZ039-040-075>077-272015-
RANDOLPH   NC-LEE   NC-CHATHAM   NC-MOORE   NC-HARNETT   NC-
251 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

 ...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF RANDOLPH...LEE...CHATHAM...NORTHERN MOORE AND CENTRAL HARNETT
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ASHEBORO TO 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LILLINGTON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...LILLINGTON...SILER CITY...
NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...GOLDSTON...SEAGROVE...RAMSEUR AND BROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8006 3584 7954 3581 7903 3569 7897
      3561 7899 3558 7891 3552 7888 3527 7866
      3526 7898 3544 7959 3551 7977 3551 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 263DEG 12KT 3570 7973 3532 7897

KDS