Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Raleigh, NC

373 
WWUS52 KRAH 041953
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCC007-042003-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-160704T2030Z/
ANSON NC-
353 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ANSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3493 7986 3495 7987 3498 7987 3501 7990
      3504 7988 3507 7991 3510 7991 3512 7993
      3518 7977 3518 7968 3516 7964 3516 7962
      3519 7965 3527 7938 3504 7946 3495 7936
      3481 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 257DEG 26KT 3506 7971 

$$

NCC125-153-165-042030-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-160704T2030Z/
MOORE NC-SCOTLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-
353 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOORE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND RICHMOND
COUNTIES...

AT 353 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
ROCKINGHAM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...PINEHURST...HAMLET...ABERDEEN...
HOFFMAN...WHISPERING PINES...PINEBLUFF...ELLERBE AND FOXFIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 7986 3495 7987 3498 7987 3501 7990
      3504 7988 3507 7991 3510 7991 3512 7993
      3518 7977 3518 7968 3516 7964 3516 7962
      3519 7965 3527 7938 3504 7946 3495 7936
      3481 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 257DEG 26KT 3506 7971 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

22

234 
WWUS52 KRAH 042006
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCC125-153-165-042030-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-160704T2030Z/
MOORE NC-SCOTLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-
406 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOORE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHEASTERN
RICHMOND COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOFFMAN...OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...HOFFMAN...
WHISPERING PINES...PINEBLUFF...ELLERBE...FOXFIRE AND WAGRAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 7981 3515 7984 3518 7977 3518 7968
      3516 7964 3516 7962 3519 7965 3527 7938
      3504 7946 3495 7936 3487 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 257DEG 26KT 3508 7960 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

22

024 
WWUS52 KRAH 042024
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
424 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCC125-153-165-042031-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-160704T2030Z/
MOORE NC-SCOTLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-
424 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOORE...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 430 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  

HOWEVER, THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3497 7981 3515 7984 3518 7977 3518 7968
      3516 7964 3516 7962 3519 7965 3527 7938
      3504 7946 3495 7936 3487 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 257DEG 26KT 3508 7960 

$$

22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
309 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday before an upper
level ridge brings warmer and slightly drier conditions to the area
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 pm Monday...

Stratus deck is the major player in the forecast this afternoon.
Visible satellite imagery shows that it is deteriorating quickly but
probably not quick enough for significant convection this afternoon.
Further to the south we have convection starting to form in the
southwest Piedmont and it didn't kick off until the temperature
reached 90 degrees so with that in mind it will be tough to get much
across the north although the shear is a little better up there so
that could help. A combination of low shear and very weak mid-level
lapse rates has to this point held convection at bay across upstate
South Carolina and no severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued
as of yet. DCAPE is fairly high in this area which goes along with
the idea that the most likely threat is damaging winds. Back to the
north however, SPC has cut the slight risk back to the west and all
but the NW corner of Forsyth County remains in it. Convective
allowing models are showing scattered convection across the area
drifting north as the front does. Therefore not out of the woods yet
as far as showers and thunderstorms are concerned but certainly
looking like less of an impactful day than earlier thought.
Temperatures have again been a problem with the clouds in place but
with the dissipation of the clouds occurring fairly quickly now would
expect the northern areas to at least make it into the upper 70s
with a sharp gradient through the 80s to low 90s across the south.

Tonight the front continues to lift northward and some drier air
does move into the area. This will cut back on the chances for fog
and low stratus overnight but still could see some MVFR conditions
especially in areas where precipitation occurs. Lows tonight in the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY and TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 pm Monday...

Low pressure exits the mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday and leaves
behind the Piedmont trough across the area as an upper level ridge
begins to build in to our southeast. This surface trough will be the
main focus for diurnal convection Tuesday afternoon. That being said
shear values will be quite a bit less as well as instability in the
mid-levels. The only forcing appears to be from a shortwave coming
from the southwest but it is not particularly strong. SPC has the
area in a marginal risk for severe weather with damaging winds the
most likely threat. Maybe the bigger story of the day will be the
heat. Without the clouds around to hinder insolation, we should see
temps rise very quickly tomorrow with thickness values suggesting
highs near 90 in the NW piedmont and in the upper 90s across the
southeastern counties. Combine this with dewpoints in the middle 70s
and heat indices could top out in the 105-110 degree range across
the southeast. Therefore will be issuing a heat advisory for 12-7 pm
local time for Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, Sampson, and Wayne
counties. Wind gusts are also expected to kick up tomorrow in the
afternoon ranging from 15-20 kts. Any isolated convection should
subside after dark. Lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 pm Monday...

Wednesday and Thursday:

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail across the region through mid to
late week as a low-level thermal trough meanders across the region.
Weak low-level moisture convergence invof the trough combined with
strong afternoon insolation within a seasonably moist airmass(PWATS 1.5-
1.75") will support isolated to scattered convection each
afternoon and evening. However, difficult to time individual shortwaves,
embedded within the the southern fringes of the westerlies could
aid lift to support convection at anytime during the diurnal cycle.
Seasonable temperatures with daytime highs in the 90 to 95 and lows
in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday through Monday:

Central NC will remain in the doldrums between the belt of westerlies confined to
the US-Canada border and the broad subtropical ridge to our south. While its
subtle, the deterministic model guidance suggest that the broad subtropical
ridge to our south will try to gain latitude over the Carolinas during the
Friday-Saturday period, at which time h8 temps are forecast to increase 21 to 23C.
This would suggest hot daytime highs in the mid 90s north to near 100 F south,
with the potential for heat advisory criteria across southern and central portions
of the forecast area. While the warm air aloft should also cap atmosphere a bit
and limit convection to isolated/slight chance ranges.

Low-level thicknesses and H8 temps are then forecast to fall slightly on
Sunday-Monday as a weak surface front/trough attendant to the shortwave trough
crossing the Northeast and New England regions, moves into the region. Its quite
likely the front could stall over the area with only northern areas seeing a
slight cool down into the lower 90s, while southern portions remain in the
upper 90s. Aforementioned weak front and continued vulnerability to shortwave
impulses embedded in the low-amplitude flow will support isolated to scattered
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 pm Monday...

Stratus starting to erode more quickly from the southwest. KFAY has
begun to lift but it may be a while longer for KRDU and KRWI ho are
holding at IFR at this hour. In the triad LIFR remains in place but
could also see some improvements over the next couple of hours.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
but the cooler temperatures across the north should quell the
severity of them. The best chance for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon will once again be at KFAY where they have begun to break
into the warm sector and will have the differential heating boundary
just to their north. Winds will eventually all shift to southerly as
the front eventually moves northward. Overnight tonight models are
less bullish on fog and low stratus although a lot will depend on
later convection. As far as convection Tuesday is concerned,
coverage should be less with much of the activity forming after the
TAF period. The NW Piedmont would be the most favored area.

Long Term: Convective coverage should wane a bit later in the week
as an upper level ridge builds overhead. A frontal system will
approach the area late in the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
338 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-051945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
338 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ042-043-073>077-083-084-051945-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-
338 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-051945-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
338 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

NCZ074-083-084-042015-
RICHMOND   NC-ANSON   NC-MONTGOMERY   NC-
324 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2016

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF RICHMOND...EAST
CENTRAL ANSON AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF WADESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKINGHAM...HOFFMAN...ELLERBE...CANDOR...LILESVILLE...NORMAN...
COVINGTON...DERBY...BLEWETT FALLS LAKE AND SANDHILLS GAME LAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 7971 3528 7971 3525 7970 3524 7967
      3519 7966 3518 7963 3500 7955 3499 7957
      3496 7959 3493 7957 3490 7998 3507 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 242DEG 23KT 3504 7996

22