Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
into the early evening hours, with strong wind gusts being the main
threat.  Otherwise satellite images show drier air working into the
area and chances for showers and storms should mostly end by
midevening.  Gusty south to southwest winds will continue into the
evening hours, but will gradually decrease.

Mon should be dry most of the day, however the forecast models are
still showing pcpn developing in the late afternoon hours acrs the
southeast corner of CO and ovr the far southern CO mountain areas.
With sfc dew points expected to be around 60 degrees ovr the sern
corner of CO Mon afternoon, the NAM shows 2000+ j/kg of CAPE in that
area. 0-6km bulk shear is only marginal though, with around 25-
30kts. Breezy south to southwest winds will develop again acrs
most of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

...Warm and dry week ahead...

Main concerns in the extended will come early in the period.
Moderate shear and instability over the Eastern Plains will lead
to chances for a few svr storms both Mon Eve and Tue afternoon and
eve. Chances will be greatest near the KS border both days. Large
hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the
main threats. Storms on Tue will be a little more widespread given
better upper forcing...but shear does not look as great Tue
afternoon. Highs both days over the Plains will likely be in the
lower 90s as SW flow aloft increases ahead of an approaching
trough.

From Wed onward, flow aloft transitions to more of a zonal pattern
as a series of low amplitude trough move through the N Rockies.
This will result in near zero POPs over much of the area Wed-Thu.
A weak upper low to our south may bring some modest moisture into
extreme southern portions of our area Thu...but POPs look rather
low overall. Temps will remain near 90 over the Plains and in the
70s for the high valleys. The next chance of any widespread precip
does not look to come until next weekend or early the following
week, as a short wave moves in from the NW...but even that looks a
bit iffy at this point. Looks like the first half of Sept will be
quite warm and dry. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hours.  Breezy south to southwest wind will continue into
the evening hours and will gradually decrease by late evening.
However, the breezy south to southwest winds will return on Monday
by either late morning or early afternoon, with gusts of 25-30 mph
at the terminal forecast sites.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-051800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1146 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
TO SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES
AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

STARTING WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.

28/28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
110 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW LAMAR             38.07N 102.69W
09/04/2016  M61 MPH          PROWERS            CO   ASOS

            .

&&

NWS PUEBLO CO
IRIS SYSTEM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ096-098-042115-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
237 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 237 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HARTMAN...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF COOLIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLY AND HARTMAN.

LAT...LON 3803 10213 3814 10230 3844 10205 3810 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 219DEG 34KT 3815 10216

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
518 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ096>098-042345-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
518 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 518 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...OR 21 MILES WEST OF
LAMAR... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMAR...WILEY...MCCLAVE...QUEENS RESERVOIR...
JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR AND CADDOA.

LAT...LON 3790 10293 3799 10310 3834 10263 3812 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 231DEG 40KT 3798 10299

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
549 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ096-098-050015-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
549 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 548 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILEY...OR NEAR LAMAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
PROWERS AND SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3809 10266 3819 10272 3845 10231 3830 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 236DEG 41KT 3817 10263

HODANISH