Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main near/short term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures...pops/qpf...high terrain snow and storm intensities.

Forecast district early this afternoon currently graced by variable
cloudiness...isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms(primarily over the western 2/3rds of the forecast
district) and generally below seasonal late August temperatures.

Latest PV analysis...real-time data...computer simulations...and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as indicated by current and forecast precipitable water
values remaining in the 100% to 125% range into Friday) interacting
with upper disturbances(per latest PV analysis) will allow isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to continue into
Friday...with some of the stronger storms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding issues as well as
hail...hazardous lightning and gusty wind potential.

In addition...projected maximized capes/LI's and bulk shear values
of 1300 J/KG...-6C and 30 knots at times will allow for the
potential for marginally severe storms(especially Friday over
eastern sections).  At this time...the Day 2 SPC Outlook(for Friday)
has painted portions of Kiowa...Prowers and Baca counties in the
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.  As always...WFO Pueblo will
closely monitor hydro and convective issues closely.  In
addition...have continued to depict some higher elevation snow at
times in the grids.

Finally...minimum temperatures tonight and maximum temperatures on
Friday are expected to run near late August climatological averages.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

...Warming and Gradually Drying...

Southwest flow will keep a weak to moderate monsoon alive over
southern Colorado into next week. Overall, the atmosphere will
showing drying and lower coverage of showers and storms. But,
it will not dry out completely. Enough monsoon flow will continue
into the state for a daily burst of afternoon and evening showers
and storms, primarily over the mountain areas but with some
limited activity over the plains as well. Primary threats through
the period will be lightning, wind gusts to around 55 mph, brief
heavy rain and local small hail. Shear looks rather weak through
the period so not a lot of severe weather threat.

Starting this weekend and continuing into next week, temperatures
will warm back up to near seasonal averages for this time of
year. This should help raise the snow levels back up and decrease
the amount of high elevation snow we've been seen for the past
few days. With the warmer air will also come drier air at the low
levels which will help to reduce the overall heavy rain potential
as well as increase the wind gust potential. All-in-all, getting
back to a pretty typical late summer pattern over the central
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The KALS...KCOS and KPUB TAF sites should experience isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms at times into Friday...which
will be capable of producing periods of IFR/MVFR conditions at
times.  In addition...some of the stronger storms if they directly
impact the TAF sites will be capable of producing hail generally
under the size of nickels...brief wind gusts around 50 mph and
periods of locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

COZ072-074-087-252100-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
218 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM MDT...

AT 216 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LA VETA...OR 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA VETA AND TRAVELERS ON HIGHWAY 160 EAST OF LA VETA PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 10513 3753 10515 3758 10501 3751 10497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 252DEG 8KT 3752 10510

MW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

COZ081-084-085-252215-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
339 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 337 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM PALMER LAKE TO WOODLAND PARK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 30 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...
WOODLAND PARK...MONUMENT...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...PALMER LAKE...
GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...CHIPITA PARK...GLENEAGLE...
CRYSTOLA AND CASCADE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10466 3885 10482 3896 10511 3913 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 284DEG 28KT 3911 10494 3899 10502

MW