Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Currently...showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
region, with the eastern mountains, Palmer Divide and Raton Ridge
the favored areas so far.  Cells are likely producing locally heavy
rainfall, small hail and lightning.  Temperatures are warm with mid
to upper 80s across the plains.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight...models are indicating two upper
disturbances moving across the area, one across northeastern
Colorado into western Kansas, and a second out of southern Colorado
into New Mexico.  The latest radar and satellite imagery tend to
follow along with these disturbances, with convection favored down
south, and in northeast Colorado trailing into the Palmer Divide
region.

For areas with the southern disturbance, expect shower and
thunderstorm activity to continue through the rest of this afternoon
into the evening hours before shifting south into New Mexico with
the upper disturbance.  Locally heavy rainfall, lightning and small
hail will be the primary threats along with gusty outflow winds.
Flash flooding may be an issue on area burn scars.

For areas with the northeastern Colorado disturbance, there is a bit
more uncertainty.  Several high-res model solutions develop a line
of convection with the disturbance, stretching from northeast
Colorado into the Pueblo area this evening.  Other solutions have
this line, but do not extend it too far southwest, with it clipping
areas north of highway 50 across the plains.  Locally heavy rainfall
and lightning will be the primary threats.  One or two cells, if
they can form back to the southwest, may become strong with 3/4 inch
hail and winds approaching 60 mph.  This area of thunderstorms will
shift east and dissipate through the evening hours.

Over the Continental Divide...dry air has worked into the central
mountains this afternoon which has really limited thunderstorm
activity.  Expect this trend to continue, with more isolated
activity over the central mountains.  Further south near the upper
disturbance, more scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the San Juan range into the overnight hours.

Sunday...high pressure will start to shift eastward out of the Great
Basin with broad northwesterly flow aloft over Colorado.  Models not
indicating much in the way of energy rotating south over Colorado,
and drier air across the region.  Expect isolated the scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains by the afternoon hours.
Lack of steering flow will likely keep most activity confined to the
mountains, with a couple cells moving east into the Palmer Divide
and Raton Mesa.  The heavy rain threat appears to be more limited,
but burn scars should continue to be monitored.  Other threats will
be gusty outflow winds and lightning.  Temperatures will begin to
warm across the region with upper 80s to perhaps a few lower 90s
over the plains.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2016

Flat upper ridge across the area Mon/Tue with main monsoon
moisture plume suppressed well south of Colorado. Still enough
recycled moisture around both days to produce mainly isolated
afternoon/evening tsra, with mountains/higher terrain favored for
convection as low levels stay dry and steering currents weak.
Broad upper trough then takes shape over the western U.S midweek,
which will draw a modest amount of moisture northward across the
area beginning Wed. Upturn in tsra chances will begin Wed
afternoon/evening, especially central/southwest mountains where
moisture will be slightly deeper. Should see precip chances
spread to the remainder of the area Thu as moisture continues to
increase, though strengthening lee surface trough on the plains
may induce some downslope winds along the I25 corridor,
potentially decreasing tsra coverage along/just east of the
mountains. Upper trough then lifts into the high plains Fri,
pushing a strong cold front through the region by Fri evening.
Should see enhanced tsra chances eastern mountains and plains with
frontal passage Fri, then post-frontal upslope Sat, while
mountains father west begin to dry as mid level flow turns more
wly. Max temps will trend upward through mid-week and remain above
average until cold frontal passage Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2016

KALS...VFR conditions with mid and high level clouds expected across
the region. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected over
the mountains, and one or two may move into the San Luis Valley and
impact the terminal with reduced CIGS and VIS.  Expect VFR
conditions on Sunday.

KCOS...VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms expected
through this evening. Reduced CIGS and VIS will accompany any
thunderstorms that pass over the terminal. The most likely time
period for thunderstorms will be through 02z/Sun.  VFR conditions
are expected once thunderstorms move out of the area tonight with
very low probabilities for thunderstorms on Sunday.

KPUB...VFR conditions with evening showers and thunderstorms
expected. Models suggesting 23z/Sat through 04z/Sun will have the
most likely period of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible during this time period along with gusty outflow winds. VFR
conditions are expected once thunderstorms move out of the area
tonight with dry conditions expected to prevail on Sunday. Mozley

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-141730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1129 AM MDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN,
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL
AROUND 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO
45 MPH AS WELL AS BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

88/88

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