Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include
temperatures...qpf and thunderstorm intensity. Forecast district
currently graced by generally above seasonal late July
temperatures and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity(primarily over the western 2/3rds of the CWFA).

Recent real-time data...PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as noted by by precipitable water values basically
running in the 100% to 125% of average ranges) interacting with
upper disturbances(per recent PV analysis) will allow isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to continue into
tonight and then again on Sunday with some of the stronger storms
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding
issues as well as hail and gusty wind potential. As always...WFO
Pueblo will continue to monitor closely.

Finally...above seasonal late July maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected to continue over the majority of the
forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

.Monday through Wednesday. A couple of troughs will pass over the
northern Rockies with flow aloft becoming more from the west to
southwest. This flow aloft will bring increasing monsoon moisture
into the region with better chances for convection over and near
the mountains. A lee trough will develop over the plains which
will keep low level flow predominately from the west. The lee
trough will tend to keep the more moist low level air east of the
CWA, and it will limit the amount of convection and heavier rain
on the plains. Airmass over the region will remain warm with
temperatures near to modestly above average.

.Thursday through Saturday...Monsoon plume will continue over the
area with middle and upper level moisture flowing into the
region. A trough to our north will continue moving east with high
pressure developing over the high plains. GFS and EC suggest a
cold front will move southward over the eastern plains. Upslope
flow behind the front could bring an increase in low level
moisture to the plains and eastern mountains during this period.
General trend is for an increase in the amount of convection with
a greater chance for heavy downpours associated with the
convection. The increased moisture on the plains could increase
the chances for heavier rain and convection on the plains as well.
Specifics will depend on subtle features which are difficult to
forecast this far out. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Outside of generally isolated to low-grade scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms capable of generating brief
periods of locally heavy rainfall...small hail and gusty winds the
KALS...KCOS and KPUB taf sites should experience basically VFR
conditions into Sunday.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NONE. &&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-311745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1143 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  MOST OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OCCUR OVER
URBAN AREAS AND AREA BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ079-083-086-302200-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
320 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
MDT...

AT 320 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLORENCE...OR 21 MILES WEST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WETMORE...BEULAH AND COLORADO CITY.

LAT...LON 3818 10517 3832 10501 3816 10467 3795 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 308DEG 10KT 3820 10500

PGW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ086-089-093-302245-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
405 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
PUEBLO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 405 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORDER...OR 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
JUNTA...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...ORDWAY...MANZANOLA...OLNEY SPRINGS...SUGAR CITY...CHERAW AND
CROWLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 10349 3810 10416 3852 10403 3852 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 014DEG 20KT 3849 10391

KAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ071-072-074-079-080-087-302330-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
447 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COSTILLA AND CENTRAL
HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 446 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LA VETA PASS...OR 43 MILES EAST OF ALAMOSA...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA VETA...LA VETA PASS...FARISITA...
THE EAST PEAK BURN SCAR AND GARDNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10485 3741 10483 3746 10546 3788 10513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 087DEG 11KT 3766 10512

KAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
458 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ094-302345-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
458 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 458 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIM...OR 32 MILES NORTHEAST OF DES MOINES. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10360 3722 10324 3700 10318 3700 10354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 176DEG 3KT 3712 10345

KAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
509 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ086>088-310000-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
509 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 509 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOWLER...OR 31 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO...NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 10446 3799 10437 3798 10409 3767 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 037DEG 5KT 3789 10428

KAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

COZ086-088-093-094-310030-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
539 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO AND NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 539 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF DELHI...OR 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA JUNTA...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TIMPAS...THATCHER AND DELHI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10418 3785 10376 3742 10341 3740 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 346DEG 15KT 3775 10402

KAM