Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
139 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Short wave coming out of the mtns is initiating convection over
the mtns and adj plains. HRRR is showing convection will likely to
continue and drop east-southeast over the plains this afternoon. A
couple of locally strong storms pssbl over plains especially s of
US50. Cant rule out some locally heavy rain in the mtns...as Sand
Dunes got over 2" yesterday. \/Hodanish

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

This morning an upr disturbance is bringing showers and some isold
thunder to the contdvd.  The NAM shows the upr disturbance slowly
moving southward ovr the forecast area thru the day.  The HRRR shows
the activity over the contdvd and possibly affecting the nrn Sangres
and the Pikes Peak area into about midmorning, and then briefly
dissipating. Showers/tstms show up in the HRR again around 17-18Z
ovr and nr the mtn areas, and then spread east and south ovr the
forecast area in the afternoon and evening as the upr wave moves
south. There will still be the threat of locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause problems if it falls in urban areas, on burn scars
or in locations that have had heavy rain in the last few days.  High
temps today are still expected to be a little below average.

By late evening it looks like most, if not all of the convection
should end as the upr wave moves out of the area and an upr ridge
builds ovr the state.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

...A warming and drying trend for the middle of the week...

Monday-Tuesday...Generally weak westerly flow aloft progged across
the region on Monday gives way to increasing westerly flow aloft
across the area on Tuesday, as an upper trough moving across the Pac
NW continues into the Northern Tier on Tuesday. Models continue to
indicate a minor disturbance moving through the flow on Monday,
supporting scattered showers and storms developing across the higher
terrain Monday afternoon, with a few storms moving east across the
plains through the evening. Temperatures on Monday look to be around
seasonal averages. Drier air within the increasing westerly flow on
Tuesday helps to mix out the atmosphere with warmer and drier
conditions expected. There will be enough residual moisture to
support isolated afternoon and evening storms, mainly over the
higher terrain, with convection expected to be more high based.

Wednesday-Thursday...Moderate westerly flow aloft continues across
the region, as Northern Tier upper trough continues to translate
east. Warm and dry westerly flow helps to boost temperatures across
the area on Wednesday with diurnal isolated high based storms
possible over and near the higher terrain. Wednesday could be a
critical fire weather day across portions of the area, though will
have to see how recent rainfall has affected fuels across the area.
Passing Northern Tier system looks to send a weak front across the
area on Thursday, supporting slightly cooler temperatures and
slightly better chances of storms across the area.

Friday-Saturday...Generally dry west to southwest flow aloft progged
across the area into next weekend keeping temperatures at or above
seasonal averages and chances for mainly high based convection over
and near the higher terrain through the period. However, the ECMWF
still keeps more available moisture across the area and is
indicating better chances of diurnal storms both Friday and
Saturday. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Scattered tsra will be possible at all three the taf
sites...kpub...kals and kcos this afternoon and early evening.
Brief pds of mvfr could occur due to precip/cigs. Otherwise expect
vfr. Winds will be light except in and near tsra.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-041715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1105 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY,
WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE RATON MESA AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE RATON MESA AND
SPANISH PEAKS REGION.

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

COZ086-089-093-032045-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
218 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
PUEBLO AND SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 218 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOONE...OR 22 MILES EAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...BOONE AND PUEBLO DEPOT.

LAT...LON 3827 10433 3835 10412 3801 10386 3789 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 335DEG 18KT 3825 10419

HODANISH