Alert archive / Colorado / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

June 23, 2016Otero County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this special weather statement at Jun 23, 2016, 6:33 PM MDT for Otero County, Colorado. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 23, 2016, 6:33 PM MDT (00:33 UTC)
Expired
Jun 23, 2016, 7:00 PM MDT
In force
27 min
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO

County Otero County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 328 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2016-06-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 876 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2016-06-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
876 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-118 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1501 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 23, 2:41 PM MDT, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 2:41 PM MDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The current SPC outlook for severe weather has a slight risk from
extreme eastern El Paso and northeast Pueblo counties, then eastward
across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa counties.  The early
afternoon meso analysis is showing CAPE values of 2000-3500 j/kg ovr
the far sern plains.  The latest NAM would suggest that the far
eastern areas will have the highest chances for a couple or a few
severe storms this evening.

In the evening hours there should be a chance for showers/tstms acrs
much of the forecast area.  There will be the potential for heavy
rain, especially in locations near the KS border. The HRRR suggests
a line of storms working its way eastward acrs the southeast plains,
and exiting to the east by around 04z. After 04z the HRRR shows the
potential for some additional, isolated convection over the sern
plains and mtns until the late night hours. The NAM shows decreasing
chances for pcpn after this evening, with all pcpn ending by late
night.

On Fri an upper level low wl move into nrn ID/wrn MT, and the upper
level flow over the forecast area wl be westerly, and a weak
disturbance is expected to move acrs nrn CO.  Showers/tstms will
again develop over the mountains, probably by late morning and will
increase in the afternoon hours and spread acrs the eastern plains
into the evening hours. With the flow aloft expected to be fairly
light on Fri, slow moving storms and the potential for heavy rain
will be the main threat. Temps on Fri are forecast to be quite warm,
with around 100 degrees ovr the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. Still looks
like typical conditions for early summer. Zonal or quasi-zonal
flow early in the period will slowly evolve as high pressure
builds from the south.

Weekend looks pretty comfortable as a cold front associated with a
short wave over the N Rockies-S Canada moves through early in
the day. H7 temps behind the front in the 10-12 deg C range, so
should see some decent cooling of conditions for SE CO, with highs
around 90 for the plains and lower 80s for the high valleys. Will
see showers and storms develop late in the day, and possible
MCS development over the SE Plains by Sat night. Pattern
continues on Sunday with another round of diurnally-driven
storms. Svr parameters do not look all that impressive, but could
see some strong storms, especially on Sunday when conditions are a
bit less stable.

Upper high will then build early next week, and temps should
slowly rebound to near average or slightly above average by Mon-
Tue. Will see round of storms each afternoon and evening,
especially over the mts/higher terrain. By the middle part of
next week, a stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
Miss Valley region could impact our area by bringing a surge of
cooler air into the Central Rockies. The GFS is a bit stronger
with this feature than the ECMWF, and would bring cooler
conditions and more widespread storms. Ensemble POPs are near or
slightly above climo, and look appropriate at this time. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites for the
next 24 hrs.  However thunderstorms may move acrs the forecast sites
this evening, and again on Fri afternoon and if they produce heavy
rain there is the possibility of brief restrictions to vsby.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 6:06 PM MDT, 27 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 23, 3:03 PM MDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

COZ084-232145-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
303 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

AT 303 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CALHAN...OR 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALHAN AND RAMAH.

LAT...LON 3897 10406 3894 10405 3891 10406 3899 10442
      3913 10440 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 277DEG 14KT 3908 10432

HODANISH
Special weather statement, Jun 23, 3:36 PM MDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
336 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

COZ086>088-232200-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
336 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO...
NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM MDT...

AT 335 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTH OF AVONDALE...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO...NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3780 10463 3813 10468 3813 10410 3775 10408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 277DEG 49KT 3803 10441

HODANISH
Special weather statement, Jun 23, 3:58 PM MDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
358 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

COZ086>089-093-232230-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
358 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO...SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY...NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND EAST
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 357 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20
MILES SOUTH OF AVONDALE...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUEBLO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER.

LAT...LON 3773 10444 3802 10465 3826 10408 3799 10396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 227DEG 10KT 3793 10438

HODANISH
Special weather statement, Jun 23, 4:21 PM MDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

COZ074-088-232245-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
421 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 420 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STONEWALL...OR 26 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONCARBO...SEGUNDO...STONEWALL AND WESTON.

LAT...LON 3704 10508 3722 10504 3731 10464 3699 10464
      3699 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 278DEG 22KT 3712 10497

HODANISH
Local storm report, Jun 23, 4:33 PM MDT, 2 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TORNADO          5 E CANON CITY          38.46N 105.14W
06/23/2016                   FREMONT            CO   PUBLIC

            TORNADO CONFIRMED BY PUBLIC PHOTOGRAPH. .
            THE DURATION OF THE TORNADO EVENT WAS 3
            MINUTES.

&&

AL
Special weather statement, Jun 23, 6:33 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 23, 7:51 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBBent39 min
Jun 23, 8:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBaca, Bent, Prowers53 min
Jun 23, 9:05 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers40 min
Jun 24, 2:57 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBEl Paso48 min
Jun 24, 3:38 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBElbert52 min
Jun 24, 3:39 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBPueblo51 min
Jun 24, 5:39 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBOtero51 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Colorado, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.