Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
338 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HEAVY SNOW RAMPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...

VERY BUSY DAY AT THE WFO TODAY...SO WILL HAVE TO BE BRIEF.
IMPRESSIVE TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER KIOWA COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED...BUT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM 03Z TO 06Z. STORMS
MAY CONTINUE AFTER 06Z BUT TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED AS
BL STABILIZES. BY 12Z...SHOULD BE MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH SOME
EMBEDDED TS POSSIBLE. TOMORROW...SVR THREAT LOOKS LIMITED BUT COULD
SEE SOME SVR NR THE KS BORDER SAT AFTERNOON.

HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL RAMP UP OVER NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS SNOW
LEVELS...AS LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET SAT MORNING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SN AT KCOS...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO TEMP
DIFFERENCE COULD MEAN SOME BIG SWINGS IN SN POTENTIAL FOR KCOS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE STRONG N-NE WINDS ANTICIPATED SAT MORNING...COULD SEE
SOME LOW VIS IN THE MORNING DUE TO BLSN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS AT OR
BELOW 6K FEET WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM NR SURFACE CONDITIONS.
NEVERTHELESS...A COUPLE QUICK INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ON SATURDAY AS BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP MOVE INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME HINT OF A DRY SLOT PUSHING NWD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR SAT AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THOSE AREAS
ALONG AND E OF 1-25...WHERE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN AS
RAIN. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER POPS LINGERING OVER EL PASO COUNTY
AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY...UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER COLORADO. DO NOT SEE ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE OVER
THE CWA TO ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME SURFACE
HEATING. GRIDS HAVE SCATTERED POPS WITH SOME LIKELY POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING
ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS AND EC SUGGEST A
TROUGH MAY PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.

.WEDNESDAY TROUGH FRIDAY...TROUGH WEAKENS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STRONG STORM OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AND
BEYOND. PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MAJOR SPRING STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ARE EXPECTED TO THE TAF
TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY KCOS AND KALS. HAZARDOUS FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SAT EVE. AT
KALS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AFTER 06-09Z TONIGHT AS
PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SN. IFR IS LIKELY SAT MORNING. AT KCOS...MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE STRONG N-NE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY CHANGING TO SN SAT MORNING...COULD SEE IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS WINDS GUST IN THE 40 KT RANGE. AT KPUB...PRECIP WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AS RA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...SO EXPECT
FREQUENT UPDATES TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ058>060-066-
068-081-082.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ061>063-065-
067-072>080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ070-071-083-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ069-087.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR COZ084.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1254 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-161900-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1254 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM LIMON TO LA JUNTA TO
KIM. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE CONCERNS. THE PRIMARY WINDOW OF CONCERN WILL
BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND MIDNIGHT MDT...WITH THE GREATEST LEVEL OF
THREAT LIKELY BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY AND THEN TO
THE HIGH VALLEYS...THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE PALMER DIVIDE
TONIGHT. NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO
ABOUT 4 INCHES IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.  ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START OUT AROUND 8000 FEET THIS EVENING BUT THEN
LOWER TO NEAR 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE TO AN INCH OR LESS DOWN AT THE 6000 FOOT
LEVEL.

DUE TO ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM...ALL AREAS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. IN
AREAS WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID IGNITION...GROWTH AND SPREAD OF
FIRES. OUTDOOR BURNING OR ANY OTHER ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A
FIRE SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LARGE...SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
WEATHER HAZARDS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH 3 TO EVEN 4 FEET POSSIBLE ON TOP OF
PIKES PEAK. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A MIXTURE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
NEAR 6000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. IF
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO INTENSE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE STORM WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO.

44/44

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