Freeze Warning 4, NWS Pueblo, CO

205 
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

COZ084-087-088-095>098-050515-
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0004.161005T0900Z-161005T1400Z/
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...EADS...
SHERIDAN LAKE...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
301 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT
  COUNTIES...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPANISH PEAKS REGION.

* TEMPERATURE...IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...LOWS IN THE UPPER 
  20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...30 TO 
  32 DEGREES. 

* IMPACT...TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE KILLED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

HODANISH

134 
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1034 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

COZ084-087-088-095>098-051245-
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0004.161005T0900Z-161005T1400Z/
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...EADS...
SHERIDAN LAKE...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
1034 PM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT 
  COUNTIES...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPANISH PEAKS 
  REGION. 

* TEMPERATURE...IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...LOWS IN THE UPPER 
  20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...30 TO 
  32 DEGREES. 

* IMPACT...TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE KILLED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

375 
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2016

COZ084-087-088-095>098-051400-
/O.CON.KPUB.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-161005T1400Z/
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...EADS...
SHERIDAN LAKE...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
344 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...KIOWA...PROWERS AND BENT 
  COUNTIES...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPANISH PEAKS 
  REGION. 

* TEMPERATURE...IN NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...LOWS IN THE UPPER 
  20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...30 TO 
  32 DEGREES. 

* IMPACT...TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE KILLED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

224 
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
750 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2016

COZ084-087-088-095>098-051500-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-161005T1400Z/
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-
INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...EADS...
SHERIDAN LAKE...LAS ANIMAS...LAMAR
750 AM MDT WED OCT 5 2016

...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND AND 40S
THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO
EXPIRE AT 8 AM MDT.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1232 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Have changed freeze watches to freeze warnings...and have also
added areas down near ktad to the warning. Temps in some of these
areas will likely get down into the 30-32F range...with areas in N
El paso county getting into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Gusty winds continue ovr and nr the hyr trrn this morning as an upr
trof moves acrs the state.  This upr trof wl exit the area to the
east early in the afternoon.  Later this morning and into the early
afternoon, gusty westerly winds are expected to spread out ovr some
of the lower elevations, like over the San Luis Valley and the I-25
corridor, which wl result in critical or near critical fire weather
conditions for a couple or a few hours as humidities fall, however
does not look widespread enough for long enough to issue a fire
weather highlight.  In the late afternoon, although it will still be
breezy, the winds should decrease a bit.  The weather is expected to
be dry today with cooler temps.  Highs should be in the upr 50s and
lower 60s in the high valleys, with mid 60s to mid 70s acrs the I-25
corridor and southeast plains.

The weather wl remain dry tonight and the main concern wl be the
potential for near freezing temps ovr some of the southeast plains.
MET guidance is cooler than the MAV with 28 degrees for KLAA and
KAFF tonight. At this time it looks like northern El Paso, much of
Kiowa and portions of Prowers counties may have the best chance of
seeing temps around freezing, but not expecting a hard freeze. Not
really expecting frost so will issue a freeze watch for these
locations for late tonight and early Wed morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

...A quick shot rain and snow Wednesday night and Thursday...

Wednesday-Thursday night...Moderate westerly flow aloft across the
region on Wednesday becomes more southwest and increases Wednesday
night and into Thursday, as secondary energy digging across the
Inter-mountain West carves out a trough across the Great Basin. Said
trough and associated cold front lifts out across the state through
the day Thursday and into Northern High Plains Thursday night.
Models differ on the amplitude and speed of the system, with the
latest ECMWF the weakest and fastest solution, the NAM with deepest
and slowest solution, and the GFS in between the other models.

At any rate, looks to be a quick shot of rain and snow across the
across the central mountains Wednesday night and early Thursday,
with precipitation spreading east across the higher terrain and
portions of the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and evening. UVV
and cold air associated with the passing trough to bring snow levels
down to 8000 FT through the day Thursday and possibly down to 6000
FT late Thursday afternoon and early evening behind a passing cold
front across the plains. Current grids are indicating between 3 and
6 inches of snow across the higher terrain of the central mountains
and northern portions of the eastern mountains. If the slower and
deeper NAM solution is more correct, would see better chances of
light snow accumulations over and near the southeastern mountains
with a more north to northeast SFC-H7 wind regime.

As for temperatures, breezy west to southwest winds across the on
Wednesday to help boost highs to at and above seasonal levels,
especially across the plains. Cooling from west to east can be
expected Wednesday night through the day Thursday with associated
cold front bringing gusty north to northeast winds to the plains
late Thursday afternoon and evening.  Could also see some sub
freezing temperatures across the plains late Thursday night and
early Friday morning, depending on how fast the system is, which
would allow for faster clearing and decreasing winds.

Friday-Monday...A warming and drying trend remains in the forecast
as more seasonal westerly flow aloft takes hold across the region.
Latest models dry to bring a slight increase in moisture to the area
for the weekend, though doesn't look to bring more than a few
afternoon and evening showers to the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Gusty west to northwest winds will occur this afternoon at all 3
taf sites. The winds will decrease by late afternoon or early
evening. Winds will be light tonight. Mainly clear skies are
expected during the next 24h.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 837 AM MDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for Fremont...Pueblo and
Southern El Paso counties shortly. It will be marginal event with
gusts to 25 to 30 mph in locations. In El Paso county...the
strongest winds will occur south of Colorado Springs
proper...mainly along the El Paso/Pueblo county line. \/Hodanish

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ084-087-
088-095>098.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-227-228.

&&

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
856 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

COZ058>089-093>099-051500-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA  VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
856 AM MDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS FREMONT...PUEBLO AND FAR SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. OUTDOOR BURNING OR ANY OTHER
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD START A FIRE SHOULD BE POSTPONED.

TONIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
AROUND FREEZING IN NORTHERN EL PASO...KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND SIX THOUSAND FEET LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW COLD THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE...AND HOW MUCH SNOW MAY
FALL. KEEP CHECKING THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

34/28