Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
115 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

A warm front moved north through the area this morning. This spawned
few strong storms. Much of southeast Idaho has been in the warm
sector ahead of a powerful cold front which will arrive this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front
in the afternoon instability. The WRF appears to have the best
handle on the situation given how convection appears to be
developing on satellite so far. It is also a compromise between the
NAM which has less convection tonight and the GFS which has is more
widespread. Expect the cold front to move through the region during
the evening hours with strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
possible along and ahead of the front. Then expect a break in the
precipitation overnight as we await the arrival of the associated
low pressure area. The low will arrive by early Monday morning. This
will pour much colder air into the region along with windy
conditions. Most of the precipitation with this system will fall
across the higher elevations above 7000 feet and across the central
Idaho mountains. Elevations above 7000 feet will see several inches
of snow and a winter weather advisory is in effect. In the valleys,
including the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, we will see a few rain
showers along with very windy conditions and much cooler
temperatures. A wind advisory is in effect for these areas where
sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are likely along with gusts to
around 45 mph. This storm should exit the area Monday night. We will
spend most of Tuesday awaiting the next system with some
precipitation moving into the area late in the afternoon.

Valle

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday. Influence of
departing upper low will still be felt Tuesday night, mainly over
the Eastern Highlands. Snow levels will remain around 6000 to 7000
ft. GFS and ECMWF drop a little more energy in the broadened upper
trough over the Northern Rockies, and will likely keep chance to
likely PoPs for the area at least until Friday. Aside from
increasing PoPs slightly for the latter part of the week, very
little changes to the forecast. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...On-going convection will likely linger into the evening
hours as we remain in the warm sector of this early fall storm.
Anticipate surface winds to eventually sharply increase as we become
better mixed in the low-levels. Convection could approach severe
with large hail and strong outflow winds, but lacking certainty on
timing and location of development this afternoon. Thus just keeping
VCTS mention. Cold front is expected to pass through early evening
from west to east and should see abrupt wind shifts as it passes.
The frontal passage may offer a brief hold on showers, but still no
solid signal of that is provided among the models. Outside of
showers, expect conditions to remain VFR, except for KSUN, where
ceilings may drop to MVFR early tomorrow morning. Low-level wind
shear potential is possible overnight if we de-couple as 2k ft winds
will be around 40 to 50 kts. Hinsberger

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ017-020>022.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT Monday
night for IDZ018-019-023-025-031-032.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
111 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

IDZ019-021945-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
111 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TETON COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

AT 111 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VICTOR...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF DRIGGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DRIGGS AND VICTOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4359 11105 4354 11112 4354 11113 4355 11114
      4355 11117 4359 11122 4383 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 220DEG 31KT 4359 11112

VALLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
319 PM MDT SUN OCT 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             MARYSVILLE              44.07N 111.42W
10/02/2016  E0.50 INCH       FREMONT            ID   PUBLIC

            SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, ESTIMATED 0.10 INCH

&&

JMESSICK

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