Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Pocatello, ID

165 
WWUS55 KPIH 301925
SVSPIH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
125 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

IDC013-037-301934-
/O.EXP.KPIH.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160630T1930Z/
CUSTER ID-BLAINE ID-
125 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND
NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 130 PM MDT...
    
A NEW WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  

LAT...LON 4368 11453 4384 11464 4411 11424 4374 11403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 243DEG 11KT 4379 11450 

$$

JKEYES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
831 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...Radar imagery showing activity filling in this morning
through Snake River Plain though it remains weak. HRRR the only
hi-res model this morning to capture this development and even it
waits several more hours. Believe initial convection this morning
will remain relatively weak given cloud cover. If additional sun
can be realized this afternoon, do expect better support for
thunderstorms however instability does lessen through the
afternoon per model soundings. Have made a few early adjustments
to current forecast to ensure thunderstorm wording most locations
in forecast area today and shifted hail/wind gust wording to this
afternoon. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016/

..Corrected Fire Weather text for Sunday and Monday...

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Initial forecast concern
early this morning revolves around whether or not convective
cluster of thunderstorms will develop across the Central Mountains
and progress eastward into the Arco Desert during the early
morning hours. HRRR (a high resolution forecast model) has been
consistent in showing a rapidly evolving complex across this
region and dissipating around 9 to 10 am MDT. In the meantime,
strong wind gusts, possible downdraft winds and small hail are
the primary threats associated with this activity. Will mention
that a small cell was developing near Stanley as of 2:30 am MDT,
pretty on par with the HRRR's solution.

For the rest of today, expect additional thunderstorm development
across the Central Mountain, Upper Snake Highlands and Eastern
Mountain locations. The atmosphere is set up quite similar to
yesterday with the exception of this mornings activity - however
that plays out. Temperatures today will remain warm in the 90s
across the Snake Plain. Friday will bring improving weather
conditions with more clear skies though the warm temperatures will
persist. By Saturday a degree or two warmer temperatures are
expected while skies remain clear.

LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday...An overall windy
period is expected next week as Southeast Idaho lies under the
influence of broad low pressure to the northwest interacting with
high pressure to the southeast. Overall dry conditions are
expected with the exception of isolated showers along the border
of Montana mid-week. Temperatures persistently warm next week as
well in the upper 80s to low 90s. NP/RS

AVIATION...Moist and unstable air over most of Southeastern Idaho
today, but westerlies are expected to bring some drier air in this
afternoon. KSUN will have some showers vicinity this morning,
followed by dry air in the afternoon, but proximity of the mountains
and afternoon thunderstorms on the higher terrain is still close
enough for thunder in the vicinity. KBYI looks mostly storm/shower
free today. KIDA is most at risk for thunderstorms this afternoon 18-
03Z and if the NAM12 is right, could be until midnight. Much drier
conditions on Friday with very isolated cells over the mountains. RS

FIRE WEATHER...Early season monsoon moisture has spread into all of
southeast Idaho, at least for one more day. For Thursday there is a
disturbance embedded in westerly winds that will provide some widely
scattered to scattered afternoon thunderstorms between Galena,
Shoup,and Monida Pass. There will be a second area of activity from
Almo to McCammon, and Portions of the Caribou-Targhee Forest from
Victor south to Bear Lake. Little or no thunderstorm activity is
expected in the Middle Snake River Valley, between Hailey and
Burley. There will likely be a few cells that produce 0.10 to 0.15
inch rain, otherwise mostly dry thunderstorms. Friday and Saturday
the westerly winds will push much of the monsoon moisture east into
wyoming and south to Nevada/Utah. We do expect very isolated
thunderstorms on those days over the mountains. This will also
lower the afternoon humidity and increase the afternoon winds in the
Snake Plain to 10 to 20 mph, as well as the exposed higher
elevations of the Sawtooth, and Salmon-Challis Forest. As we
approach the 4th, there are multiple embedded disturbances in
the westerly winds aloft. The strongest is a front on Sunday, it does
not look like a big increase in thunderstorms, but the front will
bring some 20 to 30 mph winds and higher gusts with it. Most
stronger winds target areas from Minidoka north to Salmon. Afternoon
humidity around Craters of The Moon and Challis will be around 14
percent, otherwise southerly winds ahead of the front should bring
some moist air north to Idaho again. For the 4th of July, breezy
again in the Snake Plain and the Northern Sawtooth and Salmon-Challis
Forest. Evidence at the moment suggests winds Monday will subside by
sunset. RS

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1208 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

IDZ018-031-301900-
SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS ID-BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION ID-
1208 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AFFECTING SOUTH
CENTRAL CUSTER AND NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1208 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GALENA LODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALENA LODGE...LIVINGSTON MILL...GALENA SUMMIT AND SMILEY CREEK
AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4421 11451 4391 11426 4378 11469 4381 11470
      4381 11472 4394 11483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 238DEG 16KT 4390 11469

DMH