Lake Wind Advisory 4, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. WE ARE SEEING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LESS CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM STANLEY
TO SUN VALLEY. WITH THE MAIN LOW STILL DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA AND
DEEPENING...WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. THEY WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER
WHERE 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY HIT THE MARK. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WE WILL WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING SINCE IT WOULD BE PRETTY
QUICK.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A REX BLOCK AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. THE NAM SEEMED TO BE THE LONE
RANGER WITH A COMPACT LOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND
KICKING OFF SHOWERS ALONG THE BORDER. WE STILL MIGHT A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AROUND STANLEY AND SUN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
BUT WHAT CHANCE IS THERE LOOKS LOWER AND LOWER. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...THAT MEANS COOLER LOWS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY STARTS TODAY AND WE WILL SEE MANY AREAS
WITH FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SO IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP COVERING OR BRINGING IN PLANTS AND SUCH THAT
MIGHT BE IN DANGER. KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AHEAD OF DEEPLY AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH. INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
BASE OF TROUGH AND SETS UP OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALL DIFFERING ON POSITION OF LOW CENTER.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND LOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO EAST IDAHO THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS SHOW NO HINT OF AGREEMENT THUS KEPT PERSISTENT WET
FORECAST IN PLACE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SOUTHERN LOW STILL STREAMS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING MOST SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED. SOME HINT THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD AFFECT KSUN THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. RECENT
RAINFALL AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS COULD MEAN A FEW POCKETS OF
FOG/STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN IMPACT AT ANY TERMINAL SITES. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&