Winter Weather Advisory 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

995 
WWUS41 KPHI 080854
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

NJZ020-082200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.160209T0500Z-160210T0900Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.160208T1000Z-160208T1800Z/
OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSON
354 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING. AN
  ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
  THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
  MORNING COMMUTE TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY. THE
  NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MAY MIX WITH
  RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE SNOW MAY BE MODERATE OR HEAVY FOR
  A PERIOD EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLIPPERY
  SPOTS DEVELOPING MAINLY ON SECONDARY OR UNTREATED ROADS...
  BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS ON SIDEWALKS. SNOW MAY ALSO
  IMPACT TRAVEL ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TODAY.
  NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT
  INTO TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-026-081800-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.160208T1000Z-160208T1800Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
LONG BEACH ISLAND
354 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE MORNING COMMUTE AND 
  CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SLIPPERY
  SPOTS DEVELOPING MAINLY ON SECONDARY OR UNTREATED ROADS...
  BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS ON SIDEWALKS. 

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY.

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ016>019-021>023-027-PAZ070-071-101-
102-082200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.160209T0500Z-160210T0900Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE
354 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN
  MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW LATE
  TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME
  MODERATE OR HEAVY ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THE
  SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MODERATE OR HEAVY FOR A PERIOD
  EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY ALSO MIX WITH RAIN
  CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE DELMARVA...WHICH COULD CUT DOWN
  ON TOTALS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
  NIGHT...INCLUDING THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH LATE
  TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$
KLEIN/JOHNSON

341 
WWUS41 KPHI 081646
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1146 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

NJZ020-090600-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160208T1800Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0002.160209T0500Z-160210T0900Z/
OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSON
1146 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND NEAR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
  MAY MIX WITH RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE SNOW MAY BE MODERATE
  OR HEAVY FOR A PERIOD EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY IMPACT TRAVEL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
  WITH SLIPPERY SPOTS DEVELOPING MAINLY ON SECONDARY OR UNTREATED
  ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS ON SIDEWALKS

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWS_MOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-026-081800-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160208T1800Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
LONG BEACH ISLAND
1146 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. STEADIER SNOW HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...THERE
WILL BE NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

$$

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ016>019-021>023-027-PAZ070-071-101-
102-090600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0002.160209T0500Z-160210T0900Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE
1146 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN 
  MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MAY 
  BECOME MODERATE OR HEAVY ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF 
  PHILADELPHIA. THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MODERATE OR 
  HEAVY FOR A PERIOD EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY 
  ALSO MIX WITH RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE DELMARVA...
  WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON TOTALS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY IMPACT TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
  NIGHT...INCLUDING THE RUSH HOUR COMMUTES.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$

FRANCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH
THE EVENING UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY'S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF'S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT'S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE'LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-082145-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MAINLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT BUT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016-082145-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MAINLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT BUT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-082145-
MIDDLESEX-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A STRONG AREA STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT NOW ACCUMULATIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MIDDLESEX
COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MAINLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT BUT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020>027-082145-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A STRONG AREA STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT NOW ACCUMULATIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN MONMOUTH, OCEAN
AND COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE MAY RECEIVE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS FAVORED FOR THIS EVENT
BUT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-082145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-082145-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
434 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.