Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
834 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will arrive late tonight, then it may stall near the
Interstate 95 corridor during Wednesday before dissipating
through Thursday. A back door front may move into the area late
Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds across the area
from the northeast. A cold front from the west is then expected
to move across the area around Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The excessive heat warning and heat advisory have been allowed to
expire. This is now the first time in a week where heat related
headlines are not in effect. It will be another warm and muggy
night however.

The earlier convection, most likely tied to a pre-frontal trough,
dissipated or moved to our northeast. There was no main forcing
aloft other than convection feeding off the instability and then
propagating with enough organization for awhile. We now look to
our west as a line of convection continues to shift eastward from
central New York State down to western Maryland. This has weakened
some as it moves into a less unstable airmass. This convection
looks to be near or slightly ahead of a cold front. Some of this
activity may make it into our western zones late this evening,
however most of the model guidance tends to weaken it before it
does. The pops were lowered quite a bit especially this evening,
with slight chance from about I-95 westward. An upward adjustment
may be needed especially for the western zones depending on the
trends of the aforementioned convective line.

As for the overnight, despite a lack of large scale forcing
overhead and instability becoming increasingly elevated later into
the night, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out given
how warm and moist the airmass is along with lingering instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front is expected to reach the I-95 corridor by midday
Wednesday. The front looks to get hung up in the coastal plain of
S NJ and Delmarva during the afternoon. Accordingly, we will see a
relief from the excessive heat and humidity west of the fall line
with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. A much different
story across the coastal plain with highs in the low to mid 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach
or possibly exceed 100F at ACY, MIV, DOV, ESN and GED, but be just
below heat advisory criteria.

Another round of showers and storms are expected along and south
of the front Wednesday afternoon. PoPs are highest across the
Delmarva and far southern NJ near the DE Bay. Locally heavy rain
and strong winds are possible with moderate instability forecast
to develop and deep-layer shear strengthening ahead of an upper
shortwave trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The frontal boundary will slowly sag to our south Wednesday night
into Thursday, before dissipating. Meanwhile, a couple of short
wave/vorticity impulses will move across the area. This will help
create scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the
southern half of the area. Thursday will continue to be warm and
humid, but not as hot and humid as the past several days, so heat
index values are not expected to reach advisory levels.

On Friday into the weekend, a back door cold front may dip down
across the area from the north as high pressure builds in from the
northeast. There is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop as several short wave/vorticity impulses
move across the area. Hot and humid weather continues with
temperatures well into the mid-upper 80s and low 90s. However,
heat index values are not expected to reach advisory levels.

A cold front is expected to approach the area overnight Sunday
and move into the area by Monday morning, and progress eastward
through Monday night. Increasing precipitation chances for showers
and thunderstorms are expected by Sunday night, with the highest
probabilities Monday into Monday night.

The front should have pushed offshore by Tuesday morning and all
precipitation should be moving offshore as well. With the frontal
passage, cooler air should move in, and return closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR overall. A few lingering showers or thunder mainly
west of PHL, however this may be mostly tied to a line of showers
and thunderstorms moving eastward from central Pennsylvania (as of
00z). Southwesterly winds mostly 10 knots or less, turning
westerly late, then becoming northwest toward morning.

Wednesday...Some ceilings around 2500 feet may occur during the
morning hours as stratocumulus develops, otherwise VFR. Northwest
winds 10-15 knots during the morning, diminishing to 10 knots or
less during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night...Generally VFR. Chance of showers/thunderstorms
across southern NJ and DE/MD which may lead to temporarily lower
conditions.

Thursday-Thursday night...Generally VFR. A chance of showers or
thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Friday-Friday night...VFR.

Saturday-Sunday...Generally VFR. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially during the day, possibly leading to lower
condition.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SWly winds on the northern coastal waters this evening with
gusts to 25 kt. Seas should subsequently increase as well. It
still looks as if the northern NJ coastal waters will meet SCA
criteria for both winds and seas. For the southern coastal waters,
conditions are expected to remain just below SCA criteria, but we
will continue to monitor. SCA conditions are not expected on the
Delaware Bay.

Rip Currents....
For Wednesday, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
is forecast to be low as the winds turn more offshore and the seas
subside some.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night-Sunday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected across the waters through the period. Winds may
periodically gust 15-20 knots.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Gorse/Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Gorse/Klein/Robertson
Marine...Klein/Robertson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
755 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-180000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
755 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-180000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
755 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-180000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
755 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
639 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRP 40.65N  75.44W
08/16/2016  M43 MPH          LEHIGH             PA   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601738

FRANCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
710 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

NJZ008-010-162345-
SOMERSET-MORRIS-
710 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND MORRIS
COUNTIES...

AT 710 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MORRISTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISTOWN...DOVER...MADISON...FLORHAM PARK...EAST HANOVER...
LINCOLN PARK...KINNELON...CHATHAM...BOONTON...BUTLER...WHARTON...
ROCKAWAY...MORRIS PLAINS...MOUNT ARLINGTON...MENDHAM...
MOUNTAIN LAKES...RIVERDALE...PEAPACK AND GLADSTONE...
VICTORY GARDENS AND FAR HILLS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4090 7427 4091 7433 4088 7434 4086 7432
      4079 7437 4074 7437 4068 7445 4066 7445
      4061 7457 4075 7466 4096 7462 4104 7450
      4102 7443 4103 7442 4098 7428 4092 7429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 247DEG 30KT 4075 7452

PO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING REGIONAL AIRPOR 40.38N  75.97W
08/16/2016  M48 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST READING            40.33N  75.95W
08/16/2016                   BERKS              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FEW TREES DOWN

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRY TWP               40.51N  75.94W
08/16/2016                   BERKS              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FEW TREES DOWN

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICHMOND TWP            40.48N  75.82W
08/16/2016                   BERKS              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FEW TREES DOWN

0537 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRP 40.65N  75.44W
08/16/2016  M43 MPH          LEHIGH             PA   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601737 PHI1601740 PHI1601741 PHI1601739 PHI1601738

PO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

NJZ009-010-015-PAZ104>106-170445-
SOMERSET-HUNTERDON-MERCER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-UPPER BUCKS-
1213 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MERCER...
SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN SOMERSET...CENTRAL BUCKS AND
EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 1213 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DOYLESTOWN...OR 19
MILES WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOYLESTOWN...BYRAM...FLEMINGTON...CHALFONT...PENNINGTON...NEW HOPE...
DUBLIN...HOPEWELL...ROCKY HILL...STOCKTON...LUMBERVILLE...
SAND BROOK...SKILLMAN...CLOVERHILL...GARDENVILLE...SERGEANTSVILLE...
LAMBERTVILLE AND NEW BRITAIN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4021 7516 4038 7527 4055 7476 4039 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 245DEG 32KT 4033 7510

MWG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1229 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

NJZ008>010-012-013-015-019-PAZ106-170515-
SOMERSET-MORRIS-WESTERN
MONMOUTH-HUNTERDON-MERCER-MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-LOWER
BUCKS-
1229 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN
HUNTERDON...WESTERN MONMOUTH...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...
MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN BURLINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTIES...

AT 1229 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOONTON TO NEAR RICHBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRENTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...PERTH AMBOY...MORRISTOWN...SOMERVILLE...
SOMERSET...EDISON...OLD BRIDGE...EAST BRUNSWICK...BRIDGEWATER...
SOUTH BRUNSWICK...SAYREVILLE...NORTH BRUNSWICK...EWING...CARTERET...
MADISON...MIDDLESEX...PRINCETON...FLORHAM PARK AND EAST HANOVER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4056 7421 4055 7425 4050 7426 4050 7428
      4048 7427 4013 7462 4027 7514 4094 7442
      4091 7427 4090 7427 4091 7433 4083 7433
      4076 7438 4075 7436 4067 7446 4065 7440
      4060 7446 4060 7421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 283DEG 23KT 4088 7438 4028 7502

MWG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

DEZ001-NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-101>104-106-170515-
NEW CASTLE-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-WESTERN
CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER
BUCKS-EASTERN CHESTER-DELAWARE-
1233 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

... LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADING TOWARD PHILADELPHIA...

AT 1232 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VALLEY FORGE TO NEAR WEST CHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILADELPHIA...CAMDEN...WEST CHESTER...GLOUCESTER CITY...BENSALEM...
NORRISTOWN...CHESTER...DEPTFORD...WEST DEPTFORD...PHOENIXVILLE...WEST
NORRITON...EAST NORRITON...BELLMAWR...YEADON...WESTTOWN...WOODBURY...
BRISTOL...RIVERSIDE...CONSHOHOCKEN AND PALMYRA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3987 7573 4019 7546 4015 7482 3977 7514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 268DEG 27KT 4011 7544 3991 7562

MWG