Alert archive / New Jersey / Coastal Flood Advisories in 2016
Coastal Flood Advisory 8, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood advisory at Mar 14, 2016, 8:12 PM EDT for Middlesex County, Monmouth County, Ocean County, New Jersey. It took effect at Mar 15, 2016, 1:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 14, 2016, 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 15, 2016, 1:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2016, 5:43 AM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 418 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 350 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 737 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
220 WHUS41 KPHI 150012 CFWPHI URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... AND MARYLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 812 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 NJZ012>014-020-026-151000- /O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0008.160315T0500Z-160315T1000Z/ MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- 812 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. * LOCATION...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE RARITAN BAY...BARNEGAT BAY...AND OTHER BACK BAYS OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEAN SIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM EDT. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS MAY OCCUR UP TO 5 HOURS LATER. * WAVES...WAVES OF UP TO 10 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SIDE WHICH COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. * IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SOME ROADS MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
1 follow-up statement
367 WHUS41 KPHI 150943 CFWPHI URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... AND MARYLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 543 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 NJZ012>014-020-026-151045- /O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-160315T1000Z/ MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN- 543 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED. WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS THE REST OF TODAY. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood advisory went out at Mar 14, 5:24 PM EDT, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 5:24 PM EDT, 2 hours 48 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
524 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHEN JUST A BIT AS IS VERY SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE DREARY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. IT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
FLOW, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH EARLY...THEN
SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE-
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH...ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WERE A MOS/CONTINUITY BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS
THE AREA. SLIGHT CHE POPS WERE KEPT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT BY AFTERNOON POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT. LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOIST WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES
WILL SOAR, ONCE AGAIN, WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SOME COLDER AIR POSSIBLE ACROSS
THINGS REALLY START TO CLEAR A BIT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AGAIN. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. BY SATURDAY, WE SHOULD HAVE DRIED OUT
COMPLETELY AND A NICE DAY SHOULD BE HAD FOR THE MOST PART.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT IN
TIME BUT RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOW POTENTIALLY DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES TO OUR EAST, WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, COOLER TEMPERATURES PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY ALLOW
FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND FROM THURSDAY ONWARD,
WE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL KEEP VSBYS LOW,
WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING ONE-HALF STATUTE MILE. CURRENT TAFS
ONLY GO DOWN TO 2SMDURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW EVENTS UNFOLD.
TUESDAY... VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM IFR IN
THE MORNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AS LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGH
THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR OR LOWER ONCE AGAIN
IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....VFR CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR PERIODICALLY
AS SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ INCREASED
OVER THE LAST HOUR, ALTHOUGH BUOYS FURTHER OFF SHORE ARE SHOWING
THE EXPECTED DECREASE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THREE SITES ALONG THE SHORE
ARE SHOWING SOLID GALES, ISSUED A GALE WARNING THROUGH 00Z TO
COVER THESE NEAR SHORE GUSTS. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
TO SCA CRITERIA AND AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW THE SCA ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND
DE COASTS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
REEVALUATE BASED ON LATER DATE TO DETERMINE IF IT MIGHT NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT BY MORNING. THEN...AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO
OFF SHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE SOUTHERN
SHORE OF THE RARITAN BAY, WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE (WHICH WILL OCCUR AT 1:38 AM
EDT FOR SANDY HOOK). FOR THESE LOCATIONS, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS WATER
LEVELS FALLING JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS, WHILE OUR
LOCAL REGRESSION EQUATIONS SHOW WATER LEVELS A BIT HIGHER, BUT STILL
FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ESPECIALLY AS WE SEE WHAT THE DEPARTURES WILL BE FOR LOW TIDE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/MIKETTA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 5:20 PM EDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 520 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106-152130- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 520 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-452>455-152130- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 520 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ450-451-152130- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 520 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Nearby
Coastal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2016Every coastal flood advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.