Coastal Flood Advisory 10, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE AND
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY, MOVING
OFFSHORE AND TO OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS TO THE NORTH OFF THE AREA TUESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT RACED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER,
SHOULD SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS SUCH SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN QUITE TIGHT
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THAT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION, A STRONG INVERSION
SHOULD DEVELOP, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MIXING WE WILL SEE FOR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT WILL STILL BE
FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT,
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS IN THE
FUTURE.

SATURDAY, THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE MID/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THICKNESSES
ARE QUITE LOW AND WOULD SUPPORT SNOW. THE MOS TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE WARM, WHILE THE 2M GRIDDED TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN
MOS. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE, WE WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO WE'VE TAKEN MORE OF A
BLEND OF THE 2M TEMPS. WE EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, THEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY DURING
THE DAY, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MAY PUSH NORTHWARD. AREAS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH MAY NOT ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER. WE COULD HAVE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY WE EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OR LESS,
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MAY SEE 1-2 WHERE THEY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO STAY ALL SNOW.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A DRY PERIOD SHOULD FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR SOME AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS IN THE FUTURE.

THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF SOUTHERN
CANADA. AS IT DOES SO, A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY MONDAY, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
BUT GENERALLY AGREE WITH A TUESDAY TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT ON OUR AREA TO BRING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 00Z, AND REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY OR
WESTERLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED EARLY...LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL GALES MAY CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 PM.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY, WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WATER
LEVELS SHOULD STAY BELOW COASTAL ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

PAZ054-055-082000-
CARBON-MONROE-
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-105-082000-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
UPPER BUCKS-
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR NEXT MONDAY
MORNING WHEN THE SPRING FROST FREEZE WARNING PROGRAM BEGINS FOR
THIS PART OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-101>104-106-
082000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-082000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-082000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
352 PM EDT THU APR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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