Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

608 
WGUS81 KPHI 250455
FLSPHI

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

MDC015-PAC011-029-091-250645-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160225T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-BERKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
1155 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EST FOR CENTRAL
CECIL...CHESTER...EASTERN BERKS AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

AT 1148 PM EST...A REPORT FROM THE CHESTER WATER AUTHORITY INDICATED
THAT THE OCTORARO CREEK WAS RUNNING HIGH AND WAS LIKELY TO EXCEED
ITS BANKS.

EARLIER THIS EVENING, THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING NEAR BEAVER DAM
AND PARK ROAD IN HONEYBROOK AND IN MERTSTOWN. A NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SPOTTER REPORTED OVER 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN GILBERTSVILLE.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT RAINFALL EXCEEDED 2.00 INCHES
IN SPOTS. WITH THE GROUND EITHER FROZEN OR SATURATED, EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR. EXPECT THE SMALL RUNS, CREEKS, AND
STREAMS THAT REGULARLY FLOOD IN HEAVY RAIN TO DO SO THIS EVENING.
SOME BODIES OF WATER THAT FLOOD WITH LESS FREQUENCY WILL FLOOD
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE FOR A SHORT TIME
UNTIL WATERS RECEDE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7623 3973 7610 3987 7599 3995 7600
      4004 7593 4011 7594 4014 7588 4026 7606
      4057 7573 4036 7540 3972 7588 3948 7587
      3957 7609

$$

KRUZDLO

896 
WGUS41 KPHI 250642
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
142 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

MDC015-PAC011-029-091-251045-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160225T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-BERKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
142 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...
  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  EASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 545 AM EST

* AT 138 AM EST...A NUMBER OF GAGED CREEKS AND STREAMS REMAINED
  ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ACROSS LOWER BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, AND
  CHESTER COUNTIES. A REPORT FROM THE CHESTER WATER AUTHORITY
  EARLIER TONIGHT INDICATED THAT THE OCTORARO CREEK WAS RUNNING HIGH
  AND WAS LIKELY TO EXCEED ITS BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7623 3973 7610 3987 7599 3995 7600
      4004 7593 4011 7594 4014 7588 4026 7606
      4057 7573 4036 7540 3972 7588 3948 7587
      3957 7609

$$

KRUZDLO

150 
WGUS41 KPHI 251027
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
527 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

MDC015-PAC011-029-091-251245-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160225T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-BERKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
527 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...
  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  EASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 745 AM EST

* AT 524 AM EST...SEVERAL CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS BERKS, CHESTER,
  AND UPPER MONTGOMERY COUNTIES CONTINUE TO HOOVER AROUND OR
  EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7623 3973 7610 3987 7599 3995 7600
      4004 7593 4011 7594 4014 7588 4026 7606
      4057 7573 4036 7540 3972 7588 3948 7587
      3957 7609

$$

KRUZDLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM OHIO THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD RAINY AIR IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH CANADA ON
THURSDAY AND WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FREE BUT RETURN TEMPERATURE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...STRONGER WINDS MAY MIX DOWN JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS, SO HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
COUNTIES THAT REMAIN E OF THE LINE. STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE WINDS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE MAIN LINE.

730 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED THE TORNADO WATCH FURTHER NORTH TO
INCLUDE THE REST OF OUR AREA. LINE IS MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND
BERKS COUNTY NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NORTH
NORTHEAST. STILL EXPECTING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE STRONG WINDS,
BUT THERE REMAINS SOME THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT PUSHED INLAND AS
FAR AS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S WHILE READINGS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST UP OVER OUR REGION AT 330 PM. THE CORE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AS IT BECOMES LOCATED OFF OUR COAST. THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
IS THEN EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH THE MONTREAL VICINITY AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT.

A CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN VIRGINIA DOWN INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 330 PM. THE
LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD AFFECT
OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 730 PM AND 1030 PM. BEFORE THAT
TIME, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
A LOW TOP, HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WHILE LIGHTNING MAY BE LIMITED,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM.

BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 700 AM THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.50
INCHES FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. AMOUNTS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE
FORECAST AMOUNTS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREA AND
ROADWAY FLOODING ALONG WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING ON A FEW SMALL
STREAMS. THE FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. WE WILL COVER THE
SITUATION WITH AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, IF NECESSARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT, THEN READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE STRONG LOW WILL MAINTAIN BRISK CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PULL ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD AND THERE MAY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO RECOVER MUCH ON THURSDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN US AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PICK UP MUCH
MOISTURE SO THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

FOR FRIDAY...THE CURRENT OHIO VLY STORM WILL THEN BE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SURGE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS
BUT OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
DIE DOWN SOME. MAX TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER SOME WAA SHOULD BEGIN LATE IN THE
DAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW. SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MILDER
THAN SAT WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FORECAST TO 10-15 DEG C ON WLY FLOW.

A FAST MOVING SHRTWV TROF ALOFT AND ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THE FCST FOR MONDAY HAS ONLY LOW
CHC POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHC SOUTH. IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...BUT AS OF NOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MID WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER OUR TAF
SITES WITHING THE NEXT 4 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND 0600Z FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND HAD DEVELOPED AT KACY, KMIV, KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY 2030Z. THE WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO REACH
KRDG AND KABE BY 2200Z OR 2300Z. THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS. THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 0600Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT ..MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE UPGRADED DELAWARE BAY TO A GALE WARNING AND IT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING ON OUR OCEAN WATERS HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 AM THURSDAY.

A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WARM AIR OVER THE COLD WATER WILL NOT
PRESENT THE MOST IDEAL SET-UP FOR TRANSFERRING THE WIND GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION AROUND TO HELP MIX THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH AT TIME. WE MAY NOT ACHIEVE THE TEMPORAL
DEFINITION OF A GALE WARNING EVERYWHERE BUT WE ARE UNABLE TO
FORECAST WITH CONFIDENCE WHICH LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED AND
WHICH WILL NOT. AS A RESULT, IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO INCLUDE ALL AREAS.

WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THURSDAY, SO THE GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY WHEN THEY EXPIRE.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE NEEDED FOR A TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER ATTM THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS HOWEVER SHOULD BUILD SOME LATER
SUNDAY TO NEAR 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND AND BUILDING
SEAS WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIP THAT WILL
ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE HEAVIEST WE'VE
SEEN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LIKE WE'VE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH, THERE
WILL BE A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION HELPING TO INCREASE RAIN
AMOUNTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

IN TERMS OF ANY FLOODING, AS OF NOW, THE LATEST FORECASTS OUT OF
THE MARFC CALL FOR CAUTION STAGE AT PEMBERTON ON THE NORTH BRANCH
RANCOCAS CREEK, AT BLACKWELLS MILLS ON THE MILLSTONE RIVER, AND AT
PINE BROOK ON THE PASSAIC. CRESTS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM FOR TONIGHT, THERE'S A MUCH GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WITH THE EXPECTED HEAVIER
BURSTS OF RAIN. SOME FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG SOME OF THE
FASTER RESPONDING RUNS, CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT CAN'T HANDLE A LOT
RUNOFF IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

ACROSS SE PA, WHERE WE SEE THE MOST RECURRING SMALL CREEK AND STREAM
FLOODING IN THE HSA, ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.75 IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
IT'S CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN, BUT WHAT
LAYER OF THE GROUND IS NOT FROZEN IS SATURATED, MAKING THE RUNOFF
PROCESS EFFICIENT. HENCE THE ENHANCED FLOOD THREAT FOR SMALLER
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE TRANSITIONED TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE IS NO THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT. BEING THAT THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS RATHER
LIMITED IN TIME, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON DELAWARE BAY OR ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER.

WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW UP CHESAPEAKE BAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT AND ITS
POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THURSDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE ON THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
IT SHOULD NOT INITIALLY ALLOW THE WATER TO DRAIN VERY WELL. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND FOR THURSDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ071-106.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ015-019-
     020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

DEZ001-002-NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-101>105-260245-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ009-010-012>024-026-027-PAZ071-106-260245-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA-LOWER BUCKS-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-260245-
CECIL-KENT MD-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ015-019-020-260245-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-260245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-260245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-260245-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
944 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT   38.69N  75.36W
02/24/2016  M59 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   ASOS

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
02/24/2016                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN...TIME BASED ON WIND GUST
            OBSERVATIONS.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGETON               39.43N  75.23W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES BLOWN DOWN

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VINELAND                39.46N  75.00W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE INTO A PRESCHOOL ON STEWART STREET... WIRES DOWN
            ON MAYS LANDING AND PANTHER ROAD.

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ELVERSON            40.13N  75.83W
02/24/2016  M63 MPH          CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600700 PHI1600704 PHI1600701 PHI1600702 PHI1600703

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
830 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT   38.69N  75.36W
02/24/2016  M59 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   ASOS

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
02/24/2016                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN...TIME BASED ON WIND GUST
            OBSERVATIONS.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGETON               39.43N  75.23W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES BLOWN DOWN

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VINELAND                39.46N  75.00W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE INTO A PRESCHOOL ON STEWART STREET... WIRES DOWN
            ON MAYS LANDING AND PANTHER ROAD.

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT LAUREL            39.93N  74.89W
02/24/2016                   BURLINGTON         NJ   UTILITY COMPANY

            A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT COUNTY WITH POWER
            OUTAGES

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ELVERSON            40.13N  75.83W
02/24/2016  M63 MPH          CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600700 PHI1600704 PHI1600701 PHI1600702 PHI1600705
PHI1600703

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
848 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST NORRITON           40.13N  75.38W
02/24/2016                   MONTGOMERY         PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600706

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
849 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT   38.69N  75.36W
02/24/2016  M59 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   ASOS

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
02/24/2016                   SUSSEX             DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN...TIME BASED ON WIND GUST
            OBSERVATIONS.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIDGETON               39.43N  75.23W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES BLOWN DOWN

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VINELAND                39.46N  75.00W
02/24/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE INTO A PRESCHOOL ON STEWART STREET... WIRES DOWN
            ON MAYS LANDING AND PANTHER ROAD.

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT LAUREL            39.93N  74.89W
02/24/2016                   BURLINGTON         NJ   UTILITY COMPANY

            A FEW TREES AND WIRES DOWN THROUGHOUT COUNTY WITH POWER
            OUTAGES

0742 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ELVERSON            40.13N  75.83W
02/24/2016  M63 MPH          CHESTER            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST NORRITON           40.13N  75.38W
02/24/2016                   MONTGOMERY         PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600700 PHI1600704 PHI1600701 PHI1600702 PHI1600705
PHI1600703 PHI1600706

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD BRIDGE              40.41N  74.37W
02/24/2016                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN... POWER OUTAGES

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600707

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     FLOOD            MERTZTOWN               40.51N  75.67W
02/24/2016                   BERKS              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS WITH THREE FEET OF WATER ON
            STATE STREET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1600708

STAFF