Areal Flood Advisory 89, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
141 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be anchored to the north through Friday.
Meanwhile, a weak stationary front will be situated over the area
with a wave of low pressure expected to track along it. A weak
front will stall to our south and areas of low pressure will
develop along this front through the weekend and bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the portions of
New Jersey from I-78 southward, southeast Pennsylvania from Berks,
Montgomery, Bucks southward, and as well as Delaware and the
adjacent counties in Maryland along the Chesapeak Bay until
Midnight tonight.

The Flash Flood Watch (FFA) goes into effect at 2 PM for E MD,
DE, SE PA and S NJ. A rather diffuse WSW- ENE oriented frontal
boundary bisected the CWA this morning. Dewpoints were in the 60s
north of the front and 70s south of it. Following strong heating
and boundary layer destabilization during peak heating, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
where the axis of greatest moisture and instability will reside
along and south of this old boundary. These storms will like
contain torrential downpours as they develop in a moisture laden
airmass where PWATS are forecast to be 2.0-2.25 inches. There is a
signal in the hi-res CAM guidance (including the HRRR and NCAR
ensembles) for locally heavy rainfall that would exceed 3-h FFG
this afternoon and early evening in SE PA, S NJ and particularly
across our Delmarva zones.

The start time of the FFA for the tier of counties farther north
into Bucks Co., PA and central NJ is still 6 PM. We will monitor
the latest observations/mesoanalysis and model trends for
consideration if an expansion of the FFA is needed farther north
and west for tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has included our Delmarva zones in a
slight risk and SE NJ, far SE PA in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms due to the expected instability (MLCAPE 1500-2000
J/kg) along with a moderately strong westerly mid-level flow.

Maximum temperatures should favor the lower 90s in our region.
Readings should not get out of the 80s in the elevated terrain of
the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey, and along the immediate
coast. Heat index values are expected to remain several degrees
below the excessive heat criterion for our northern counties and
just below the criteria for the urban corridor and for our
southern counties.

The synoptic wind should be light allowing local influences to
drive today's wind direction. Speeds should be mostly less than 10
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.4 inches will overspread
our forecast area from the south for tonight. Conditions are
expected to remain unstable, especially across our southern
counties. Also, surface low pressure approaching from the west
will result in the development of a favorable low level wind
profile for organized convection tonight. The surface wind should
begin to favor the east to south quadrant late tonight, especially
on the coastal plain, while winds around 800 HPa will be from the
southwest.

The very high precipitable water values should result in heavy
rainfall in any organized convection. As a result, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for southeastern Pennsylvania, central and
southern New Jersey, Delaware and northeastern Maryland.

The cloud cover and high humidity will keep temperatures from
falling below the 70s for tonight except in the Poconos and far
northern New Jersey.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An area of low pres will ride alg the stalled front and bring
rain to the area on Fri. There is still some disagreement in the
mdls as to the extent of the rain and the locations of the
heaviest, with the GFS indicating most rain n and very little s
and the ECMWF having a more widespread event. For now, will just
carry high chc everywhere.

Mdls then clear things out Fri night into early Sat, so have
lowered pops and removed them for the first part of Sat.

Then there is more disagreement in the mdls into Sat as both mdls
develop precip again but the ECMWF is more widespread into early
Sun. However, by later Sun, both the GFS and ECMWF has another
good shot of precip over the area as another wave moves by alg the
front.

After Sun, the ECMWF is much drier through midweek, keeping most
of the period dry, while the GFS keeps Mon with a chc of precip
and diurnal stuff on Tue. The drier ECMWF soln is supported by the
CMC, so have leaned the fcst in that direction attm.

Temps look to be a bit cooler than we have had recently, with
temps not expected to hit 90 degrees in many areas thru the
extendd pd.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Flying conditions will continue to deteriorate through tonight as
thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain will periodically
impact all taf sites, but especially KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
through early Friday morning. Added vrb15g30kt winds to these TAF
sites to account for potential for gusty winds in and near
thunderstorms. Confidence is low for the timing of convection at
any particular TAF site, but high that storms will be in the
region through early Friday morning.

Showers and storms will expand in coverage tonight and early
Friday morning. This will result in ceilings dropping to MVFR at
most sites around or after 04Z.

Southeast winds will back to the east late tonight generally 10
knots or less, except in and around thunderstorms, but shift to
the northwest and increase in speeds, gusting at 10-20 kts after
11Z Friday.

Conditions gradually improve by late morning/early afternoon
Friday with precipitation ending, and ceilings lifting

Outlook...
Sat through Sun...Shra/tsra will lower cigs/vsbys at times
Otherwise VFR expected. Moderate Confidence.

Mon...Mainly VFR. Moderate Confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The wind direction is forecast to favor the SE for much of the
day, becoming more S late in the day and this evening. Winds
speeds will be light, around 10 knots. The winds will be variable
in some spots tonight but a general light SE wind is favored late
tonight.

Wave heights on our ocean waters will be 2 feet or less and waves
on Delaware bay should be 1 foot or less.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for this
afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated for
tonight.

Outlook...
Fri through Mon...There is a chance of marginal sca conds Fri
night into erly Sat, but confidence is low. Otherwise, no marine
headlines are anticipated thru the pd.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
for today due to the relatively light wind and tranquil seas.

The probably risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
on Friday is also low.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
     evening for PAZ105-106.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for PAZ070-071-
     101>104.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Friday
     evening for NJZ009-010-012>015.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for NJZ016>027.
DE...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Iovino/Klein
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg/99
Marine...Iovino/Nierenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-291800-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ060-291800-
BERKS-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-
101>106-291800-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-451>455-291800-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450-291800-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
159 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
209 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST BRADFORD TWP       39.97N  75.74W
07/28/2016                   CHESTER            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE TOWNSHIP

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601595

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
214 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N EMBREEVILLE         39.94N  75.73W
07/28/2016                   CHESTER            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON CAR ON STARGAZERS RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601596

SRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
238 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     OXFORD                  38.69N  76.17W
07/28/2016                   TALBOT             MD   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601597

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
312 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHIP JOHN SHOAL NOS     39.30N  75.38W
07/28/2016  M42 MPH          ANZ430             NJ   WEATHER FLOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601598

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLOOD            PITMAN                  39.73N  75.13W
07/28/2016                   GLOUCESTER         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREET FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601599

STAFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FAIR HILL MEADOWS       39.69N  75.89W
07/28/2016  M2.93 INCH       CECIL              MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1601600

STAFF