Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AFTER
TODAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTWARD
STREAKING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERHEAD HEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OF AROUND 40 MPH AS IS CROSSES THE AREA
AND SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM MIXES DOWN CONVECTIVELY.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY START TO WANE AS THE FRONT
PUSHED TOWARD THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. A NOMINAL
THUNDER MENTION WAS MAINTAINED...BUT THUNDER COVERAGE SHOULD
BECOME MUCH MORE SPOTTY BY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH RAPID COOLING BEHIND IT. SOME AREAS MAY
WELL EXPERIENCE FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS IS AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THEIR SUNDAY PEAKS OF ROUGHLY +12C TO
THEIR MONDAY AFTERNOON VALUES OF MORE LIKE -2C. CERTAINLY A NEW
WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY TO BREAK
OUT A STRATOCU DECK AND SUPPORT BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND ENHANCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPR MIDWEST BY LATE
WEEK...AND PERSIST OVER THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC
SHOWER CHCS AND DECREASING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN.
TEMPS SHOULD START OUT ABV SEASONAL LVLS...COOLING TO 15 TO 20 DEG
BELOW AVG BY SUN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE PSBL BY SUN ALSO AS THE
COLDEST AIR APPROACHES IN NW FLOW. THE LONG TERM FCST WAS
CONSTRUCTED USING ADJUSTED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENTERED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND KZZV AS OF 05Z. THIS WILL
PROCEED EASTWARD WHILE THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AS IT
CROSSES WITH CIG/VIS DETERIORATION TO OR NEAR IFR LIKELY. WINDS
WILL TURN QUICKLY GUSTY IN ITS WAKE FROM THE WSW BEFORE TURNING
WNW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS REALLY EXPECTED
ON MONDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A THU/FRI GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514-290130-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-290130-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

OHZ048-057-058-280600-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-COSHOCTON-
1258 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUSKINGUM...COSHOCTON
AND NORTHWESTERN GUERNSEY COUNTIES...

AT 1256 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PATASKALA TO NEAR MILLERSPORT TO
NEAR LANCASTER. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZANESVILLE...COSHOCTON...CAMBRIDGE...NEW CONCORD...WEST LAFAYETTE...SOUTH
ZANESVILLE...NORTH ZANESVILLE...DRESDEN...FRAZEYSBURG...PHILO...WARSAW...
PLEASANT GROVE...CONESVILLE...GRATIOT...FULTONHAM...PLAINFIELD...NELLIE...
NORWICH...EAST FULTONHAM AND BRIDGEVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES  INTERSTATE 70 IN OHIO NEAR MILE MARKER 143...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 145 AND 176.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3995 8223 3995 8220 4026 8219 4045 8188
      4044 8171 4037 8171 4037 8162 4022 8162
      4022 8160 4001 8162 3977 8207 3982 8208
      3982 8217 3991 8216 3991 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 231DEG 47KT 3994 8260 3986 8253 3972 8255

TAX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

OHZ039>041-048-049-280645-
COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-
149 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TUSCARAWAS...EASTERN
COSHOCTON...WESTERN COLUMBIANA...CARROLL AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

AT 147 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNT EATON TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
FARMERSTOWN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF WEST LAFAYETTE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT
50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...SALEM...UHRICHSVILLE...CADIZ...CARROLLTON...
FREEPORT...NEWCOMERSTOWN...MINERVA...DENNISON...STRASBURG...WEST
LAFAYETTE...SUGARCREEK...AUGUSTA...SALINEVILLE...GNADENHUTTEN...MALVERN...
TUSCARAWAS...BOLIVAR AND HOPEDALE.

THIS INCLUDES  INTERSTATE 77 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 95.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4045 8182 4045 8167 4063 8167 4067 8146
      4065 8124 4072 8124 4073 8109 4090 8108
      4090 8090 4093 8089 4093 8083 4060 8084
      4056 8086 4056 8092 4047 8094 4043 8094
      4042 8086 4020 8088 4021 8176 4034 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 251DEG 40KT 4067 8172 4037 8174 4018 8174

TAX