Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms as it moves
through the region overnight. Dry and less humid weather is then
expected for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cluster of showers and storms focused in the srn zones is
associated with a slow-moving shortwave trough that will continue
its slow ewd progress into the evening. Precipitation with this
wave is expected to wane as heating subsides early this evening.

Additional showers and storms are developing along a pre-frontal
trough in vicinity of KCLE, perhaps aided in part by increasing
upper flow associated with an approaching shortwave trough. This
convection is expected to advance into the nrn zones through early
evening.

All models do indicate an upswing in precipitation tonight as the
pre-frontal trough advances across the region. Given the abundant,
deep moisture, continued modest instability and eroding cap, some
convection overnight is not out of the question despite the
unfavorable timing. Convective feedback signals in the NAM
suggests that QPE will not be as potent as suggested in that
model.

Any precipitation tonight will vacate the region by late tonight,
with fog possible after its end owing to the lingering, very
moist airmass prior to cold frontal passage. The system's cold
front will move through late tonight/early tomorrow morning, which
will have only a slight impact on temperatures as cold advection
in its wake will not be strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Building high pressure should maintain the dry and less humid
conditions through Monday as temperatures return to near seasonal
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging across the Eastern CONUS early in the week is progged to
weaken and drift south by mid to late week. Shortwaves advancing
across the northern periphery of the ridge should return chances
for showers and thunderstorms to the region throughout the
period, though timing uncertainty limits these to unmentionable
slight to low chance numbers for now. The first of these
shortwaves should move across western counties on Tuesday, with
perhaps the best chance for rain coming on Friday. A return to
above seasonal average temperatures is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms will impact KMGW in the near term, but is
expected to wane by early this evening as diurnal heating
decreases and the associated shortwave trough exits slowly ewd.
MVFR conditions have been observed in this convection, and this
trend seems likely to continue. Additional, developing convection
in vicinity KCLE is expected to move toward KFKL by late afternoon
as upper-level flow increases with the approach of a shortwave
trough. Elsewhere, convection will be isolated, with little
clarity on where, if any, an impact might be noted.

The nrn convection is expected to increase in coverage tonight as
a pre-frontal trough advances sewd through the region. Broad
coverage of showers and possible storms is expected along this
boundary, but any restrictions ought not to fall below MVFR/patchy
IFR conditions between 04-08Z. Residual fog in the post-convective
regime may lead to restrictions late tonight through mid-morning.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible south of PIT Saturday morning with an
exiting cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

KRAMAR/TGREEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-060730-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
320 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
533 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

OHZ041-052200-
COLUMBIANA-
533 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL COLUMBIANA COUNTY...

AT 533 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LISBON...OR 8
MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LISBON...                         GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4075 8092 4085 8087 4081 8067 4065 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 291DEG 8KT 4078 8084

KRAMAR