Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

117 
WWUS51 KPBZ 241837
SVSPBZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

OHC029-241900-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160724T1900Z/
COLUMBIANA OH-
237 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR COLUMBIANA COUNTY...

AT 237 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SEBRING TO NEAR
MINERVA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN SOME 
         POWER OUTAGES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...LISBON...LEETONIA...
NEW WATERFORD...HANOVERTON...ROGERS...NEGLEY...WINONA...NEW GARDEN...
NORTH GEORGETOWN...GUILFORD LAKE STATE PARK...HOMEWORTH...
EAST ROCHESTER AND BEAVER CREEK STATE PARK.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING 4 1 2...2 6 2...1 9 8 8...
POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 8082 4090 8052 4072 8052 4073 8109
      4090 8108 4090 8090 4093 8089 4093 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 284DEG 24KT 4087 8091 4084 8093 4078 8105 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
34

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A muggy night as the mercury only falls back to around 70. A cold
front in name only passes Monday afternoon bringing the chance of
a downpour. Dry for mid week, however above normal temperatures
are forecast to continue. Another cold front will cross in the
late Thursday - Friday time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MCV has held together through the morning hours over northern Ohio
and continues to move east. It will encounter more stable air over
northwestern PA given the presence of lower surface dewpoints.
Development on the southeastern flank is what we will be
monitoring for the afternoon and evening hours. A line of showers
and storms is still expected to move through areas along and north
of I-76, lower confidence in locations over eastern OH, northern
WV, and western MD. Given the freezing level is around 15kft. Wet
microbursts are the primary threat along with downpours as PWATS
surge above two inches this afternoon. Thankfully it does not
appear training will be an issue, so urban flooding is the mode
we are anticipating.

With the line of showers and storms out of the area by 0Z, look
for quiet but muggy conditions with overnight lows around 70.

A cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon on the
periphery of the mid level anticyclone. This will end the short
heat wave across the area as clouds and timing of the showers
should hold temps in the 80s. Much the case today, ample energy
to tap for storms, especially when morning cap erodes. Best
chance for any severe storm will be south of DUJ to PIT to ZZV
line at this juncture. Wet microbursts are possible given a water
loaded sounding. PWATS north of two inches once again support
brief heavy rain. As for a flash flooding threat, the jury is
still out given storms will be moving and training does not appear
to be an issue. The best timing for storms will be late morning to
midday hours in Ohio and mid to late afternoon for PA/WV/MD.

Temps were constructed using the Bias-Corrected Raw Blend given
recent performance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The baroclinic zone will be east of the region Monday night. In
its wake lower dewpoints will return, however daytime highs will
remain above normal with widespread mid and upper 80s forecast.
Any residual fog from the previous day rain will scour out by
late Tuesday morning. Dry weather takes command through the
balance of the short term. Zonal flow aloft and a area of high
pressure traversing through the Great Lakes are the culprits for
the stretch of zero precip days. H8 temps slowly increase 1-2C
during this period so for the most part daytime highs will be
mirrors of each other.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
- Continued above normal temperatures
- Best shot at rain arrives Thursday night into Friday

Overall no real change to synoptic pattern for much of the week
as a broad H5 anticyclone dominates the southern 2/3rds of the
CONUS. Our mid level height values will fall a few decameters,
but not enough to usher in temps where they should be for this
time of year. Based on H8 temps progs...do not see a stretch of
90F+ weather like this weekend. However, would not be surprised
for eastern Ohio to be right around 90F for daytime highs most of
the week.

Baroclinic zone that crosses Monday night weakens and washes out
over the central Appalachians Tuesday as flow become parallel to
the boundary and it encounters increased subsidence. In its
wake, slightly cooler weather than what we have experienced
takes hold for mid week. By weeks end, another shortwave trough
traverses the region sweeping a cold front through. Timing
differences reside with ECMWF and GEFS, but ECMWF keeps the
recent summer trend going of shortwaves passing outside peak
heating hours. GFS opts for a Friday afternoon passage. Either
way, the next shot of widespread precipitation appears to be
Thursday night into Friday. Zonal flow re-establishes for the
weekend with temperatures near the climo average of lower to mid
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MCV will slide along a lifting warm front and instability axis
through the afternoon. Will continue to carry the VCTS mention at
all terminals through the afternoon as this system and any
additional convection slides across the upper Ohio valley. Have
added TEMPO groups where the highest confidence in thunder and
brief restrictions will occur. With plenty of instability but
little shear, some stronger storms may develop which could lead to
wind gusts approaching 40kts+. Will not emphasize this at any
terminal for now.

Latest hi res model guidance has the thunderstorm complex east of
the region by 00z. Behind it, some MVFR cigs or vsbys may be
possible. With greater confidence in restrctions north, will keep
mention at KFKL and KDUJ.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions will be possible Monday with the approach and
passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures across the region today may approach record
levels at some sites. Here are a few selected records and
forecasts...

Site                       Forecast      Record      Year
Pittsburgh Int'l Airport      94           98        1934
New Philadelphia              97           94        1999
Morgantown                    95           93        1987
Zanesville                    96           95        1999

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR PAZ020-021-029-
     031-073-075.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021-509.

&&

synopsis...98
near term...98
short term...98
long term...98
aviation...34
climate...fries

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-074-076-WVZ510>514-250600-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073-075-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509-250600-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-MUSKINGUM-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-
WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES AND ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.