Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
336 PM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather will continue through Saturday, with
multiple disturbances providing shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorms are scattered across the region as weak shortwaves move
southeast on the periphery of an upper level ridge stretching over
the Ohio Valley. Activity will be on the wane as we move through
the evening with loss of daytime heating. Dew points will be
elevated in the upper 60s to around 70 overnight, keeping min
temperatures about 10 degrees above average.

A weak cold front will approach during the day Thursday bringing
increased shower and thunderstorm chances, especially in the
afternoon. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, and this seems reasonable with available low level
instability and some deep layer shear. Another warm and humid day
with temperatures again well above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front will sink south Thursday night and stall across
northern West Virginia Friday. Shower chances will diminish north
to south Thursday night with the front. Models differ on shortwave
timing for friday into early Saturday in southwest flow aloft
ahead of an approaching trough. Have kept chance pops across the
south Friday spreading north into early Saturday as a compromise
between models. By Saturday afternoon cold front associated with
upper trough will approach with increasing thunderstorm chances.
No change in the quite warm and muggy conditions through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front will cross the region Saturday night with showers ending
and much drier and cooler air moving into the region. High pressure
will dominate through Tuesday. An approaching front will bring
shower chances back into the forecast Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR is forecast with the area under a predeminate upper ridge;
however, exceptions include areas of predawn fog in the humid airmass
as well as shortwave-supported and diurnally enhanced convection.

.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions can be expected through Saturday as a frontal
system encroaches on the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
409 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-080815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
409 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.