Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Isolated to scattered showers have started to develop across our
northern counties in the warm unstable air south of a warm front.
Thunderstorm complex in east central Missouri will continue to
move east southeast, reaching our northwest counties around 20z,
and sliding across our northern counties through 00z.

Models indicate the warm front will continue to meander near the
Interstate 64 corridor into tonight. Locations near the front
will be the better focus for showers and storms, though isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible area wide
through the overnight. By late tonight, the eastward progression
of a cold front will bring a surge of moisture/showers and
thunderstorms into our western counties. The approach and passage
of the cold front will keep widespread showers and storms across
our entire region through the day Wednesday and into Wednesday
evening. Showers and storms will taper off from west to east late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models show the cold front east of
our area by midday Thursday, so just a few showers and storms may
linger in our far eastern counties mainly early in the day.

South winds across the region will keep us unseasonably warm
tonight into Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the lower to middle 60s, and just couple of degrees cooler for
Wednesday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

A weak upper level ridge will briefly build into our region late
Thursday into Thursday night. This will help give a brief break in
our stormy weather pattern. Temperatures will remain warm on
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but
winds will shift to the northwest by Thursday night. This will
drop lows back into the middle to upper 50s, which is actually
still above seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The forecast for the long term period continues to indicate a rather
wet period. Average confidence in the first half of the long term
period, then below average in the second half due to greater model
differences.

A closed H5 low moving northeast out of the four corners region on
Friday will induce a surface low over the panhandle of Texas on a
frontal boundary extending from the low to the south of our area.
This will generate an overrunning rain event that is forecast to
push showers and thunderstorms into our far western counties by
Friday afternoon.

As the system slowly approaches, precipitation chances continue to
ramp up Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances area wide
being Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of the system. In
its wake, precipitation chances are expected to taper off from the
west but will linger from Sunday into Monday due to the presence of
upstream upper level energy and decent moisture.

Monday night into Tuesday the latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic
models are showing weak H5 ridging, little to no deep layer
moisture, and high pressure at the surface, therefore no QPF
forecast. However the Superblend and GEFS ensembles thinks there's a
chance for showers, albeit small, in those periods so will keep
pops low.

Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

MVFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. VFR
conditions will continue for the next hour or two until a broad
area of showers and thunderstorms passes through the Quad State
area this afternoon and evening, causing sharp ceiling and
visibility changes and gusty winds. After convection and showers
move out this evening, MVFR cigs and south winds AOB 7 kts will
prevail until near sunrise. While some uncertainty exists
regarding tomorrow's forecast, at this time it is likely that
another wave of convection will pass through in the morning hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BP2

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
312 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #106 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST IL AND SOUTHEAST MO...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #110 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR SCOTT
COUNTY MO...AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY...AND ALL OF
SOUTHWEST IN...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MO
TO SIKESTON MO TO PADUCAH KY TO GREENVILLE KY. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE. SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 106 AND 110 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PRIMARY ASSOCIATED HAZARDS BEING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCLUDE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MORE STORM CHANCES EXIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY INCLUDE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
507 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 S WEST FRANKFORT      37.87N 88.93W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   PUBLIC

0445 PM     HAIL             VIENNA                  37.41N 88.89W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            IL   PUBLIC

0445 PM     HAIL             CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
04/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

0447 PM     HAIL             VIENNA                  37.41N 88.89W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            IL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE

0456 PM     HAIL             3 N OWENSVILLE          38.32N 87.69W
04/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       GIBSON             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
511 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
04/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       SALINE             IL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

BP2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
516 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

INZ088-KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022-MOZ112-114-270100-
SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SYMSONIA...LOWES...
SMITHLAND...BENTON...HARRIS GROVE...KIRKSEY...MURRAY...
NEW CONCORD...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...CANTON...LINTON...
ROCKCASTLE...PRINCETON...FRYER...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...MOSELEYVILLE...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...
ALLEGRE...CLIFTY...ELKTON...GUTHRIE...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
516 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 8 PM CDT...

HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM THREE QUARTERS TO
ONE AND A QUARTER INCHES...WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY AND
THE DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH 8 PM CDT.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST APPROXIMATELY A HALF HOUR AFTER THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH YOUR AREA. THE RAIN WILL
THEN LESSEN DRAMATICALLY...PRODUCING ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH
BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY.

GIVEN THE RATE OF THE RAINFALL...SMALL SMALL DITCHES AND STREAMS
WILL BECOME BRIEFLY OVERWHELMED AFTER THE STORMS ROLL THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE MOMENTARY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS. AN
INCH OR TWO OF WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY MAY NOT BE UNCOMMON.

IF YOU ARE ABLE...PLEASE DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL THE RAINFALL HAS TIME
TO RUNOFF AND DRAIN AWAY FROM YOUR AREA. AVOID TRAVEL ON ROADS
THAT ARE COVERED WITH WATER.

LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE HEAVY RAIN UP TO AN HOUR
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
517 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             ULLIN                   37.28N 89.18W
04/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       PULASKI            IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
524 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             2 N ROUND KNOB          37.25N 88.73W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     LIGHTNING        EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
04/26/2016                   VANDERBURGH        IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURE FIRES BELIEVED TO BE CAUSED BY
            LIGHTNING PER EVANSVILLE DISPATCH

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     POPLAR BLUFF            36.76N 90.41W
04/26/2016  M59.00 MPH       BUTLER             MO   ASOS

&&

BP2