Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Tornado watch just issued for west KY, part of SEMO through 9 pm.
Very strong cold front was from KEVV to just north of Sikeston
and Poplar Bluff, moving southeast steadily. Convection continues
to flare up south of the front. Will maintain our Winter Weather
Advisory for tonight as the precip transitions to a light freezing
rain/freezing drizzle, sleet and possibly snow mix before ending.
Refer to the Advisory for more details. Bitter cold late tonight
through Sunday night as Arctic high pressure gradually builds in.
Wind chills in the single digits to below zero given the winds.
Dry weather is forecast Sunday through Monday night. Forecast was
based primarily on a NAM/HRRR blend through tonight, GFS/NAM blend
Sunday through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Slightly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the PAH forecast area
during much of next week, with high surface pressure easing off to
the east early, allowing a southwesterly low level jet to eventually
develop later in the week. This jet will form ahead of a digging
northern stream shortwave trof.

A very dry initial airmass should begin to moisten up a modest
amount ahead of the system. However, at this time the med range
guidance was in decent agreement that the moist return flow will not
be deep enough for measurable rainfall to develop in our county
warning area Wed evening, except perhaps in the far southeastern
corner. Some wraparound cloudiness should linger into Thu with the
main trof axis; otherwise, ridging aloft and at the surface will
gain a foothold by Fri in increasingly amplified flow aloft. In
fact, according to the med range models/ensemble means, the flow
over us should become southwesterly ahead of a large scale shortwave
trof by Day 7 (Sat), with the possibility of rain showers moving in
from the west.

A surface wind shift should occur early Thu, with little effect on
temps or dewpoints, as the airmass will be of Pacific origin. Temps
are expected to remain near seasonable levels for the most part
throughout the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Scattered to widely scattered lightning strikes will remain possible
for mainly western KY through at least the first half of the
evening. As pcpn comes to an end from northwest to southeast
tonight, there will be a transition from liquid precip to a FZRA/PL
mix, possibly briefly light snow before ending. MVFR vsbys will be
most common in pcpn, and existing IFR/MVFR cigs are expected to
gradually improve overnight (even in the eastern areas by midnight).
Wind gusts behind the front will average 20-30 kts at times. By the
daylight hours Sun, gusty northerly to northwesterly winds will
begin to diminish some by afternoon under diminishing VFR cigs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND
EAST OF A OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI LINE. THIS
INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN...IT WILL CHANGE RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET OR SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
QUICK PLUMMET OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING RESULTING IN ICY SLICK
SPOTS DEVELOPING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST LOCALES AND MAY APPROACH ZERO IN OUR FAR NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY MORNING MAY HAVE LINGERING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. START OF DAY
WIND CHILLS MAY BE NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE COLDEST WIND CHILL MORNING WILL BE MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE AND NEGATIVE
WIND CHILLS FROM AROUND ZERO TO AS LOW AS MINUS 5 POSSIBLE AREA
WIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY STORMS AND RAINFALL TODAY AND WINTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT ARE ENCOURAGED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
314 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N SLAUGHTERS          37.55N 87.50W
12/17/2016                   WEBSTER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED WITHIN HEAVY RAINFALL

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 ENE OWENSBORO         37.79N 87.03W
12/17/2016                   DAVIESS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
529 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     FREEZING RAIN    CAMPBELL HILL           37.93N 89.55W
12/17/2016  M0.00 INCH       JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRACE ACCUMULATION WITHIN 40 MINUTES. FREEZING RAIN
            EVENT. NEARBY TEMPERATURE 31 DEGREES.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
551 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FREEZING RAIN    CARTERVILLE             37.76N 89.08W
12/17/2016  U0.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ICE DEVELOPING ON PARKED VEHICLES AT THIS TIME.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     FREEZING RAIN    BENTON                  38.01N 88.92W
12/17/2016  U0.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

SMITTY