Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
208 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Tornado watch just issued for west KY, part of SEMO through 9 pm.
Very strong cold front was from KEVV to just north of Sikeston
and Poplar Bluff, moving southeast steadily. Convection continues
to flare up south of the front. Will maintain our Winter Weather
Advisory for tonight as the precip transitions to a light freezing
rain/freezing drizzle, sleet and possibly snow mix before ending.
Refer to the Advisory for more details. Bitter cold late tonight
through Sunday night as Arctic high pressure gradually builds in.
Wind chills in the single digits to below zero given the winds.
Dry weather is forecast Sunday through Monday night. Forecast was
based primarily on a NAM/HRRR blend through tonight, GFS/NAM blend
Sunday through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Slightly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail over the PAH forecast area
during much of next week, with high surface pressure easing off to
the east early, allowing a southwesterly low level jet to eventually
develop later in the week. This jet will form ahead of a digging
northern stream shortwave trof.

A very dry initial airmass should begin to moisten up a modest
amount ahead of the system. However, at this time the med range
guidance was in decent agreement that the moist return flow will not
be deep enough for measurable rainfall to develop in our county
warning area Wed evening, except perhaps in the far southeastern
corner. Some wraparound cloudiness should linger into Thu with the
main trof axis; otherwise, ridging aloft and at the surface will
gain a foothold by Fri in increasingly amplified flow aloft. In
fact, according to the med range models/ensemble means, the flow
over us should become southwesterly ahead of a large scale shortwave
trof by Day 7 (Sat), with the possibility of rain showers moving in
from the west.

A surface wind shift should occur early Thu, with little effect on
temps or dewpoints, as the airmass will be of Pacific origin. Temps
are expected to remain near seasonable levels for the most part
throughout the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

Complex forecast for the TAFs. Front appears to extend at 17z from
near KFWC, southwest to between KUNO and KPOF. It will begin to
move steadily southeast through the afternoon, with gusty SSW
winds shifting around to the northwest. Mainly MVFR cigs expected
ahead of the front with showers increasing, best chance of thunder
from the MO bootheel into west KY. Tonight, transition from liquid
precip to a FZRA/PL mix, possibly briefly light snow before
ending, with occasional MVFR vsbys, and cigs into the IFR
category at times. Wind gusts behind the front will average 20-30
kts at times. By 07-11z the precip will be ending from west to
east. Last 6 hours of the forecast through 18z, strong gusty north
winds continuing with MVFR cigs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1038 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND
EAST OF A OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI LINE. THIS
INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN...IT WILL CHANGE RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET OR SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
QUICK PLUMMET OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING RESULTING IN ICY SLICK
SPOTS DEVELOPING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT WILL FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST LOCALES AND MAY APPROACH ZERO IN OUR FAR NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY MORNING MAY HAVE LINGERING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. START OF DAY
WIND CHILLS MAY BE NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND HOLD IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE COLDEST WIND CHILL MORNING WILL BE MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE AND NEGATIVE
WIND CHILLS FROM AROUND ZERO TO AS LOW AS MINUS 5 POSSIBLE AREA
WIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ANY STORMS AND RAINFALL TODAY AND WINTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT ARE ENCOURAGED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             BARDWELL                36.87N 89.01W
12/17/2016  M0.75 INCH       CARLISLE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL WITH GUST 40 MPH REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
249 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             CUNNINGHAM              36.92N 88.91W
12/17/2016  M0.75 INCH       CARLISLE           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

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