Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Average confidence in the short term mainly due to precipitation
timing differences/possibilities.

Very few changes synoptically in the short term. An approaching
frontal boundary is forecast to become quasi- stationary along
the far northern and northwestern sections of our CWA through the
period. Aloft our region remains in a broad H5 trough. With the
lower troposphere remaining saturated combined with plenty of
instability in the warm sector, a series of upper level
disturbances passing across the area will generate multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Timing of these
disturbances varies per model so trying to pin down the highest
probabilities is difficult at this time.

Temperatures should remain just below normal through the period. No
heat headlines expected, but with dewpoints remaining in the 70s,
humid/sticky conditions will continue.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

An upper level trof over our region and a meandering front across
and sometimes just north of our northern counties will continue to
give our region good chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
into Tuesday.  Models now show the front becoming more northwest to
southeast oriented by Tuesday night instead of moving away from our
region, and this will put the focus for a little better chances
across our east half of counties for Wednesday.  Models also
indicate convection will become more diurnally driven by mid week,
so kept small chances of showers and storms during the day Wednesday
and Thursday, but kept out any chances for precipitation for Tuesday
night and Wednesday night for now.  Confidence is not very high for
Tuesday into Thursday due to the varying solutions with the movement
of the front, so keeping pops in chance category or lower for now
seems to be the best option.

After a break in the heat Sunday, increasing southerly flow beginning
late Sunday will increase temperatures and dew points Monday
continuing through Thursday.  Heat indices will creep back up to
around 100 degrees for our southwest counties by Monday, with 100 to
105 degree heat indices possible across most our region by Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

With plenty of moisture, instability, and an approaching frontal
boundary, showers and thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys a good
bet again this afternoon into the early evening hours. Overnight
expect cigs/vsbys to become IFR, then maybe improve back to MVFR
in the last few hours of the period. Winds will either be light
out of the southwest to west or calm.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1112 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1112 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THIS WILL INCLUDE A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE HEAT INDEX WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E MOUNT VERNON        38.32N 88.89W
07/28/2016  M50 MPH          JEFFERSON          IL   MESONET

            MEASURED BY WEATHER BUG STATION AT SUMMERSVILLE GRADE
            SCHOOL

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
425 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W FISK                36.78N 90.23W
07/28/2016                   BUTLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTING BOTH LANES OF STATE ROUTE
            51...6 MILES NORTH OF BROSELEY...BLOCKED BY TREES BLOWN
            DOWN

&&

BP2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

ILZ082-085>093-MOZ086-087-100-109>111-282245-
HAMILTON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-BUTLER-
STODDARD-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLEANSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...
PIEDMONT...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON
435 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH 545 PM. WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND PEA
SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BUTLER, STODDARD AND BOLLINGER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AND
WILLIAMSON, JOHNSON AND SALINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. TAKE
COVER WHEN STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.