Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Paducah, KY

681 
WWUS53 KPAH 141423
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
923 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC059-149-141445-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-160714T1445Z/
MCLEAN KY-DAVIESS KY-
923 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES...

AT 922 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OWENSBORO TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MASONVILLE TO
NEAR CALHOUN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

A KENTUCKY MESONET WEATHER STATION ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STORM
PRODUCED 35 MPH WIND GUST AT 915 AM CDT.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...LIVERMORE...MASONVILLE AND MOSELEYVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
PADUCAH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8694 3763 8695 3755 8705 3747 8711
      3748 8713 3746 8711 3745 8711 3753 8731
      3763 8727 3772 8721 3772 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 269DEG 27KT 3773 8710 3763 8714 3757 8718 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SMITH

203 
WWUS53 KPAH 141442
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
942 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYC059-149-141445-
/O.CON.KPAH.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-160714T1445Z/
MCLEAN KY-DAVIESS KY-
942 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MCLEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES...

AT 939 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KNOTTSVILLE TO NEAR MASONVILLE TO 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LIVERMORE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 934 AM CDT...DAVIESS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A TREE
DOWN OVER THE LONESOME PINE ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 815. POWER OUTAGES
BEING REPORTED IN AREA. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVERMORE AND MASONVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
PADUCAH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8694 3763 8695 3755 8705 3747 8711
      3748 8713 3746 8711 3745 8711 3750 8719
      3759 8718 3766 8709 3768 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 269DEG 27KT 3773 8694 3763 8698 3757 8702 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

The air mass across the region will remain unstable across the
region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected region wide
today, then as the front starts moving across the region tonight,
chances will taper off across the northern half of the PAH
forecast area during the evening hours. Models show the front
settling across southern portions of our region, which will keep
the focus for better chances of showers and storms across our
southern counties on Friday as impulses ride along the front. Loss
of heating should bring an end to thunderstorm activity across most
of the area Friday night, but slight to low chances will continue
across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. By Saturday, the
front will sink far enough south to limit any shower and storm
chances to a small portion of southeast Missouri and southwest
Kentucky. Kept the region dry Saturday night.

Conditions will remain hot and humid today, but conditions will
begin to improve as the front sinks into the region tonight.
Temperatures will be a little cooler, but dew points will be a
little slower to drop off. After heat indices today around 100
degrees across the southern half of the area, we should only see
heat indices in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for Friday and
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Average confidence during this period. Both the Euro and GFS are in
good agreement in the overall synoptic pattern, but some of the
details will need to be fine tuned as the models come into better
agreement.

For Sunday and Sunday night, kept the forecast dry as moisture and
forcing are limited and zonal flow begins to break down. The latest
operational model runs are trending drier and keep the approaching
boundary to our north and west until Monday.

The best chances for rain during the extended period look to be
Monday night and Tuesday as a weak boundary drifts southward across
the Quad State area. While moisture availability aloft is a bit of a
concern, brought slight chance to chance PoPs along and north of the
Ohio River Monday night, transitioning to along and south of the
Ohio during Tuesday. While uncertainty still exists in the details,
the latest ensemble runs hint at some increased moisture
availability during this period, which increases confidence a bit.

At this time, the main concern for next week's forecast looks to be
heat. A H500 ridge builds over the Great Plains early next week, and
depending on which model you believe, could bring increasingly
steamy conditions from Monday into the following weekend. Highs for
early next week look to be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices
climbing to at or above 100 degrees every afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period.
VCTS possible at all sites this afternoon. Looking at early
morning radar data, VCTS also expected at KEVV and KOWB over the
next few hours. Southerly winds AOB 10 kts and becoming light and
variable again Thu night.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...BP2

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
527 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
527 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE QUAD STATE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL OR PART OF THE REGION ALMOST
DAILY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS QUITE LOW. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED IN MANY
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
850 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KYZ018>020-141430-
HENDERSON KY-DAVIESS KY-MCLEAN KY-
850 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 849 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ST. JOSEPH...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...ST. JOSEPH...BEECH GROVE...HEBBARDSVILLE AND
MOSELEYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3747 8721 3756 8737 3758 8738 3759 8740
      3759 8743 3763 8750 3765 8750 3765 8754
      3778 8740 3773 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 288DEG 22KT 3770 8742

SMITH