Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

Immediate concern lies with the severe weather potential this
afternoon into the evening. Extreme instability has developed over
much of southern IL this afternoon with sfc temps in the lower
90s and dew point temps running up in the mid 70s. Not much in the
way of 0-6km bulk shear over our area with most locations running
below 30kts. However, given the instability/downcapes involved
ahead of the ongoing complex of storms, would not be surprised to
see at least isolated severe wind gusts in portions of srn IL as
we head into the late afternoon/early evening hours.

SFC front to be making its way slowly south into the region
Thu/Fri time frame as ripples of mid lvl energy try to move
southeast from the Plains. Timing and location of the waves is
difficult at best, but would not be surprised to see some risk of
at least isolated severe activity. repeat on today, especially
especially as we get into the heat of the afternoon (esp Thursday) and
instability builds along/ahead of the and fronts or outflows.
Greatest bulk shear values will probably be over se MO/sw IL.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

This extended package combines the previous forecast with regionally
blended forecast guidance. At this time only have moderate
confidence on the finer details with respect to thunderstorm
coverage from Sunday through Tuesday, as the influence of the main
middle and upper level ridge dominates the WFO PAH forecast area.

The mean southern limit of the faster zonal flow is in place over
the weekend, while broad southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico
continues as well.  The middle and upper level ridge boldly builds
into the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, serving to limit
convection across the area as a subsidence inversion builds in aloft.

The ECMWF depicts some westward shift of the ridge by late Monday
into Tuesday, allowing for a sharper northwest flow to impact the
northeast half of the WFO PAH forecast area. At this time, there
will be some uncertainty as to how much retrograding of the ridge
will be going on at this time. Will need to monitor.

With the ridge building in the from the west early next week, heat
index values may approach advisory criteria Monday through
Wednesday, mainly for all of the WFO PAH forecast area, except for
the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky and part of Southwest Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 13 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. VCTS
possible at KEVV/KOWB but chances too small to mention at this
time. Southerly winds AOB 10 knots early will gust up to 18-20
knots after 16Z, then drop back to less than 10 knots after 00Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-142045-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
341 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE LOW.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON SUNDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR 105 AND ABOVE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, EXCEPT THE PENNYRILE REGION
OF WEST KENTUCKY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON....GENERALLY NORTH
OF A MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO HARRISBURG ILLINOIS LINE.

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