Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Given previous meso discussions and updates will keep short term
disccusion a little shorter given current watches, etc...at this
time.

With respect to Flash flood watch for Southern Illinois and
Southwest Indiana Counties along and north of Interstate 64 in
effect through tonight, kept a high resolution and regionally
blended guidance QPF in place. The first convective line of
thunderstorms dropped 0.6-1.0" of rain, however the rain behind it
remains fairly light. Anctipate main heavy rainfall concern will
develop later this evening and overnight and will provide the best
contribution for heavy rain and potential flooding.

The current convection and warnings falling in line with HRRR-CR
approximation of updraft helicity...albeit about 1-1.5 hours
faster than originally forecast. At this point, am concerned with
the convergence of MCV in SEMO, the warm front and convection
further south of the warm front. Could see some more enhanced
helicities/stronger updrafts in the vicinity of these boundaries.

On the mesoscale, migratory waves move along the low amplitude
trough with minor lows embedded in the flow. With the frontal
boundary in the vicninty of the WFO PAH, the lift will support
periods of rain overnight and into Independence day.

As the mean trough axis moves east Monday night into Tuesday, rain
chances should slowly diminish from the west. A disrupted flow
will then ensue in the zonal flow, with southern stream
disturbances expected to shift northeast with time Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Average confidence continues in the long term due to differences
in model timing, coverage, etc.

Throughout the long term period models are showing ridging across
the southeast US. The northern periphery of the ridge will waffle
back and forth mainly across the southern sections of our CWA
through the period. Along and north of the ridge is where chances
for precipitation will be greatest,ie better flow aloft, little to
no capping inversion, and better forcing for ascent. Of course south
of that area (under the ridge), there will be little to no chances
for precipitation. As mentioned above, models still not in the best
agreement on the strength and position of this ridge over the
immediate area. The latest model runs continue to show that even
with the variability on the magnitude and position of the ridge, the
areas most susceptible to precipitation in the long term period
would be the northern and northeastern sections of our CWA.

During most of the period the region remains in zonal flow aloft so
there will be periodic upper level disturbances moving through the
flow making it difficult to narrow down the timing of convection,
although in this scenario convective activity tends to be mostly
diurnal.

Friday night into Saturday the flow aloft becomes more west
northwest thus suppressing the ridge a bit farther to the south,
then Saturday night into Sunday pushes a frontal boundary into our
CWA. The lack of ridging and proximity of the frontal boundary
should yield the highest pops area wide from Friday through
Saturday.

With the aforementioned surface boundary remaining north of our area
through much of the period, we stay in the warm sector. This
combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will yield heat
indices between 100-105 degrees each afternoon from Wednesday
through Saturday.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2016

Rather complex situation with rounds of TSRA expected thru the
TAF period. Main round of strong storms should impact the TAF
sites in between 20Z and 02Z from west to east. Should be
scattered activity developing ahead of the main line and lingering
for a bit afterwards. Expecting a break in precip for KCGI/KPAH
this evening before renewed development occurs overnight into tmrw
morning. May see a break at KEVV/KOWB as well, although the signal
isn't as strong for those sites. Periods of MVFR vsbys or possibly
lower can be expected within the heavier bouts of precip. Wind
gusts of 30+ kts are quite possible with the main line of storms
this afternoon, although confidence on strength and exact timing
of this remain uncertain. Will likely need to amend as the
afternoon wears on and timing/strength of the line becomes
clearer. Periods of -SHRA and occasionally some thunder will
continue into tmrw as a cold front makes passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ILZ075>078.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ081-082.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
423 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WEST KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM
FRONT. MARGINAL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ARE
INCLUDED IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES
LIKELY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO SEND IN ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.

DRS/SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             3 NNE ROUND KNOB        37.26N 88.71W
07/03/2016  E0.75 INCH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
346 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
07/03/2016  E50 MPH          WHITE              IL   PUBLIC

&&

SP

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