Flash Flood Warning 93, NWS Paducah, KY

291 
WGUS73 KPAH 152144
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
444 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

MOC017-031-201-207-223-152151-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0093.000000T0000Z-160915T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-STODDARD MO-WAYNE MO-SCOTT MO-BOLLINGER MO-
444 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CAPE GIRARDEAU...NORTHERN
STODDARD...EASTERN WAYNE...SCOTT AND SOUTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE RAIN HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3693 9037 3731 9037 3732 8950 3728 8952
      3725 8949 3725 8947 3721 8947 3716 8944
      3697 8938 3697 8941 3695 8941 3695 8943
      3692 9028

$$

SP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

An unsettled weather pattern will continue in the short term. Best
convective coverage this afternoon will continue over SEMO.
Chances should diminish tonight. PoPs will gradually rise Friday
and peak Friday night into Saturday. Wind fields are somewhat
chaotic until Sunday, likely affected by convection. We should see
drier air work in from the NW Sunday through Sunday night with
PoPs decreasing from NW to SE. Generally followed a blend of MOS
and existing numbers for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Essentially a dry forecast with the extended forecast period. The
mean trough axis moves through the WFO PAH forecast area during the
day on Sunday, scouring out any deeper moisture and lift away from
the area.

The 12z Thursday GFS has come around to the deterministic solution
of the 00z/12z Wednesday ECMWF, and to some degree the 12z Thursday
ECMWF by building broad mid-upper level ridge across the WFO PAH
forecast area, capping convective activity and allowing for a slow
but gradual increase in temperatures and dewpoints. Fortunately,
both the temperatures will be lower than what we experienced most of
August, but still a little seasonally higher for the middle of
September.

Given the turnaround of the GFS guidance and its input to the
regional blended guidance initialization...have better than 50%
confidence in the PoP/Weather forecast for the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Generally VFR conditions with scattered convection this afternoon,
and again Friday. Brief MVFR cigs, MVFR/IFR vsbys possible with
stronger convection. Light east winds today will be light tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
329 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
329 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM RELATED HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PART OR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO
BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHEN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A PRIMARY
STORM HAZARD. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

ILZ084-088-092-093-KYZ001>004-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-
152030-
JACKSON-UNION-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...JONESBORO...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...
PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...
VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...
CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
135 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

AT 135 PM...VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE OBSERVED AS WELL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO...GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
THROUGH 300 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

MOZ111-152015-
SCOTT MO-
229 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

AT 228 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BENTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RADAR
HAS ALSO DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. LIKE YESTERDAY
THERE COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. 41 MPH WINDS WERE
REPORTED AT THE CAPE GIRARDEAU AIRPORT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...SCOTT CITY...CHAFFEE...BENTON...MORLEY...KELSO...
THEBES...COMMERCE AND LAMBERT.

LAT...LON 3721 8965 3722 8963 3725 8952 3724 8951
      3725 8947 3723 8946 3723 8947 3721 8947
      3714 8942 3704 8940 3702 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 352DEG 15KT 3713 8955