Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Paducah, KY

674 
WGUS73 KPAH 141127
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ILC081-191-141330-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160814T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE IL-JEFFERSON IL-
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

AT 620 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BASED ON AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVATION SITES
AND RADAR ESTIMATES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...WAYNE CITY...WOODLAWN...BLUFORD...CISNE...INA...DIX...
WALTONVILLE...BONNIE...JEFFERSONVILLE...BELLE RIVE...SIMS...NASON...
KEENES AND JOHNSONVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.  RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ALONG SOUTHERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY DURING SINCE 6 AM CDT AND MAY MOVE NORTH OF THE WARNED AREA
BEFORE 7 AM CDT. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN, THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL MOSTL LIKELLY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 830 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 8816 3829 8861 3826 8870 3816 8880
      3813 8915 3836 8913 3848 8889 3847 8870
      3861 8869

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
351 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Radar trends overnight seem to confirm ongoing synoptic and
mesoscale model guidance with respect to a northward shift in the
heaviest precip band over much of the short term period,
especially through the flash flood watch period which runs through
Monday night. With that said, believe it is time to begin trimming
the southern row or two of counties from the watch box. This will
remove some bigger cities like Paducah, Henderson and Owensboro
KY. More may need to be trimmed if model trends hold. Still
believe some decent rains will be in the offing for those
locations with some heavy downpours at times, but the overall
flash flood potential seems to have decreased at this time.

Feeling is still that the 00Z ECMWF may be a bit too far north
with the shift, with it being farther north than most of it's
ensemble members. Thus, opted to go lean closer to a GFS/UKMET
split for this package and trend farther north rather than "jump"
as far as some models suggest. Unfortunately, some locations
still within the watch have already received some 4 to 7 inches or
so of rain from yesterday's activity, so areas west of a Poplar
Bluff, MO to Cape Girardeau to Carbondale and Mount Carmel IL line
will really need to be monitored closely, esp given the rain
rates we have been experiencing. The bulk of the heavy rainfall
potential in our forecast area may actually come later today and
tonight as the the surface low that has been bringing all of the
flooding rains to portions of the gulf coast region finally lifts
north toward MO. This definitely still a fluid and evolving
pattern, Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Hind-sight may be 20/20 with respect to the some of the model
depiction of the retrograding mean trough axis in the northern U.S.
by the ECMWF 24 hours ago.  Originally dismissed, it appears the
both the GFS and Canadian guidance which were still preferred along
the the ECMWF are focusing on the interaction of the southeastward
diving shortwave/trough from the front range of Colorado and the
timing of the low along the AR/LA border at 00z Sunday.

The net effect is to keep the mean trough axis west of the WFO PAH
forecast area through Wednesday, when the influence of the lee side
trough and the ejecting Lower Mississippi Valley low and the shear
zone/trough move east of the Area.

Agree with the model selection by WPC folks for these systems.  It
will clutter up relatively sharp demarcation of precipitation vs. no
precipitation across the south and southeast sections of the WFO PAH
forecast area. There is a little concern that the Canadian may be a
little more robust than the GFS (reversing positions on the coverage
of precipitation through the week), but the blended guidance seems a
good compromise and is closer to the 00z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

As a front becomes stationary in the vicinity of the TAF sites
combined with deep tropospheric moisture and weak upper level
energy, VFR cigs/vsbys will occasionally drop down to MVFR/IFR
with SHRA/TSRA/BR. Precipitation expected to come in waves through
the period. Winds variable AOB 5 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>089-
     092-093.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>111.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
435 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
435 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS OF CONCERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE CHANCE WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO WEST
KENTUCKY BY LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL
BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND AREAS OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS ARE NOW IN A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL LATE TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER WEST
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RELAY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE...OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1057 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W WILLIAMSVILLE       36.97N 90.58W
08/13/2016  M6.80 INCH       WAYNE              MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - BLACK RIVER
            ABOVE WILLIAMSVILLE

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW WAPPAPELLO         36.93N 90.28W
08/13/2016  M4.38 INCH       WAYNE              MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - ST FRANCIS
            RIVER AT WAPPAPELLO DAM

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E PATTERSON           37.19N 90.51W
08/13/2016  M4.33 INCH       WAYNE              MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - ST FRANCIS
            RIVER NEAR PATTERSON

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE CLUBB             37.25N 90.31W
08/13/2016  M3.05 INCH       WAYNE              MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT PIEDMONT RAWS SITE

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W DONIPHAN            36.62N 90.84W
08/13/2016  M3.74 INCH       RIPLEY             MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - CURRENT RIVER
            AT DONIPHAN

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MOUNT CARMEL        38.40N 87.77W
08/13/2016  M3.75 INCH       WABASH             IL   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - WABASH RIVER
            AT MT. CARMEL

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNE CAPE GIRARDEAU   37.44N 89.48W
08/13/2016  M7.60 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL AT RIVER GAUGE SITE - MISSISSIPPI
            RIVER AT MOCASSIN SPRINGS/ TRAIL OF TEARS STATE PARK

&&

SP