Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Paducah, KY

277 
WGUS73 KPAH 052328
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MOC017-052336-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0074.000000T0000Z-160806T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOLLINGER MO-
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN BOLLINGER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLOODING ON HIGHWAY M EARLIER BUT
WAS NO LONGER A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3730 9015 3759 9013 3759 8986 3718 8987

$$

KH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
302 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

Thunderstorms continue to fire this PM along old outflow boundary
that was laid out by overnight convection off to our north.
Torrential rainfall with PWATs running up close to 2 inches and
nearly continuous deadly lightning have been the main thunderstorm
hazards thus far. Still thinking that lack of shear and weak mid
lvl lapse rates should preclude a big severe threat, tho an
isolated storm or two may pulse to severe levels. DCAPEs running
in the 1000-1300 J/KG range over western KY could aid in localized
damaging wind gusts so will need to monitor into the early
evening.

Cold front will then slip south through the region during the
night. Scattered shower/thunder chances will then linger on
Saturday in a moist, post-frontal environment, mainly over
the southern third or so of the forecast area, as the front
begins continues slowly south through the TN Valley. Extensive
clouds and light a northerly breeze should bring welcome relief
from the excessive heat. We may actually see surface dewpoints
fall back into the 60s by the time Sunday rolls around. Sunday
looks to be the "pick day" of the weekend with lower humidity, very
temps in the 80s and little if any chance for showers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

Models continue to show the frontal system remaining just southwest
of the PAH forecast area early next week.  This will keep any shower
and thunderstorm activity focused in southeast Missouri and to the
west and south.  Daytime heating should be the main trigger, so kept
any pops out of the night time periods.  By Wednesday, the remnants
of the front will try to lift northeast, and this will keep our
region unstable.  We will see a little better chances of showers and
storms across the entire region Wednesday through Friday, with small
chances even continuing into the overnight hours.

Conditions will remain a bit milder on Monday with highs in the
upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Warmer and more humid air will begin filtering back into the area on
Tuesday, with heat indices near 100 degrees possible in southeast
Missouri.  The entire region will see heat indices around 100
degrees by Wednesday, and these values will be common in the
afternoons through the end of the week. Overnight lows will be
around 70 degrees Monday night, and in the lower to middle 70s the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Aug 5 2016

With the approach of a front today, sct thunderstorm activity
will increase this afternoon. Will play the VCTS card most
locations until placement becomes more established. Front will
pass through the region tonight and turn winds more northerly by
12z Sat.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ083-085>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ085-086.

KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-061000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
315 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONT. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN A FEW SPOTS.

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 103-106 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR
WESTERN KENTUCKY. SEE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
98-102 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

JP