Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

607 
WGUS73 KPAH 100316
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
916 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ILC127-151-KYC007-039-139-145-MOC133-143-100615-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160310T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASSAC IL-POPE IL-LIVINGSTON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-CARLISLE KY-BALLARD KY-
NEW MADRID MO-MISSISSIPPI MO-
916 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CST FOR
MASSAC...POPE...LIVINGSTON...MCCRACKEN...CARLISLE...BALLARD...NEW
MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN IN
SOME LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PADUCAH...SIKESTON...METROPOLIS...CHARLESTON...PORTAGEVILLE...EAST
PRAIRIE...NEW MADRID...CAIRO...CALVERT CITY...LILBOURN...LA
CENTER...MINER... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...LONE
OAK...REIDLAND...CLARKTON...ROSICLARE...GIDEON AND BROOKPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8972 3639 8997 3663 8996 3663 8970
      3686 8970 3703 8926 3707 8931 3698 8914
      3717 8908 3734 8871 3760 8871 3760 8841
      3699 8822 3707 8837 3695 8881 3677 8881
      3679 8911 3646 8948 3657 8957 3634 8954

$$

318 
WGUS53 KPAH 100554
FFWPAH
ILC127-151-KYC007-039-139-145-MOC133-143-101215-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160310T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  NEW MADRID COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
  MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 AM CST THURSDAY

* AT 1152 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE HEAVY
  RAINFALL HAD LIGHTENED UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA
  OF HEAVY RAIN NOW OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
  WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS
  EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE NEXT AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.
  RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY ALSO CONTINUE FROM PREVIOUS RAINS.  

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  PADUCAH...SIKESTON...METROPOLIS...CHARLESTON...PORTAGEVILLE...EAST
  PRAIRIE...NEW MADRID...CAIRO...CALVERT CITY...LILBOURN...LA CENTER...
  MINER...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...LONE OAK...REIDLAND...CLARKTON...
  ROSICLARE...GIDEON AND BROOKPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8972 3639 8997 3663 8996 3663 8970
      3686 8970 3703 8926 3707 8931 3698 8914
      3717 8908 3734 8871 3760 8871 3760 8841
      3699 8822 3707 8837 3695 8881 3677 8881
      3679 8911 3646 8948 3657 8957 3634 8954

$$

MEFFERT

778 
WGUS73 KPAH 101210
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ILC127-151-KYC007-039-139-145-MOC133-143-101215-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160310T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASSAC IL-POPE IL-LIVINGSTON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-CARLISLE KY-BALLARD KY-
NEW MADRID MO-MISSISSIPPI MO-
610 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MASSAC...POPE...LIVINGSTON...MCCRACKEN...CARLISLE...
BALLARD...NEW MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

AT 605 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
ESTIMATED BY RADAR. A BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DRAINAGE SYSTEMS TO
MOVE WATER AWAY FROM LOW-LYING AREAS. 

THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE MORNING FOR ANY FURTHER FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT REMAINING ROADWAYS THE CONTINUE TO BE FLOODED AFTER
THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8972 3639 8997 3663 8996 3663 8970
      3686 8970 3703 8926 3707 8931 3698 8914
      3717 8908 3734 8871 3760 8871 3760 8841
      3699 8822 3707 8837 3695 8881 3677 8881
      3679 8911 3646 8948 3657 8957 3634 8954

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
408 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to so-so model agreement
and lack of continuity.

Rain from the well advertised excessive precipitation event should
continue to spread northeastward across the entire area tonight.
Models still not in the best agreement regarding the axis of
greatest rainfall. For days models have indicated the greatest
threat area for excessive rainfall to be the northwestern half of
our CWA. Now that the event has begun to unfold, it appears that the
axis may very well shift slightly farther south and east. With a
surface boundary just to the north and west, plenty of deep
moisture, and periodic impulses of upper level energy lifting
northward across the region from the upper low over Old Mexico, most
areas are going to see rain off and on this afternoon and tonight.
With models still not in the best agreement, not planning to cancel
any portions of the Flash Flood Watch at this time.

The scenario will show very little change on Thursday, so widespread
rain will be commonplace. Thursday night models continue to show a
short wave moving eastward out of the central plains impinging on
the northern periphery of the precipitation shield thereby
supressing it a bit to the south and east. Precipitation chances
will not disappear Thursday night, but probabilities will be reduced.

With the aforementioned frontal boundary stalled just to the south
of our CWA, precipitation chances will not go away on Friday.
Precipitation chances begin to ramp up Friday night as the
aforementioned upper begins to lift northward and pushes the frontal
boundary back across our CWA.

Areas of instability are somewhat patchy and limited through the
period so thunder chances move around in each period accordingly.

Based on the latest model guidance, precipitation totals for the
event have been lowered over the western sections and increased
over the eastern sections.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

The medium range model solutions were in reasonable agreement in the
extended period, though exact timing of features will be more of a
challenge than the overall rather active pattern. The period will
start out with rising mid level heights and a surface warm frontal
passage (Saturday) over the PAH forecast area as northern stream
shortwave energy passes by. This will allow a stacked low,
previously over old Mexico, to eject northward across our region
later Saturday and around the periphery of a Bermuda high, resulting
in a nearly certain chance of showers by Saturday night, and a
decent chance of thunderstorms during the day, perhaps waning a bit
by the evening.

Sunday may be mostly dry, but by Sunday night, the models indicate
that a low, originating from the Pacific, will roll northeastward
through the PAH forecast area, providing at least scattered showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms to the region. Finally, as the mid
level pattern becomes more quasi-zonal, pcpn chances should be
gone by Monday night.

We should have a reprieve from the rainfall until probably
Wednesday, when the northern stream takes on a "troffiness".
Meanwhile, at least one large low/trof will dig somewhere into the
Midwest (IA? Great Lakes?) and drag a limited-moisture cold front
through our region, with a limited chance of pcpn.

No blasts of significantly cold air are forecast through the period,
thus temperatures are expected to be significantly above average for
this time of year, with moderate afternoon humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1220 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

Expect gradually lowering cigs through the period, with MVFR/IFR
cigs and VFR vsbys prevailing this afternoon. The latest model
guidance suggests conditions deteriorating into IFR/LIFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys tonight and continuing into the morning hours as shower
coverage and intensity increase. Uncertainty lingers in the timing
of the LIFR cigs overnight as the front's progression has been
difficult for the models to agree on. Will monitor and make
adjustments as needed. Winds will be AOB 10 kts, with the
exception of gusts near KOWB over the next few hours, and will
become variable overnight as the aforementioned front begins its
passage through the local area.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KYZ001>005.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...BP2

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
335 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES IN
WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OF THE WATCH AREA...BUT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHOULD NOT POSE A THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER COUNTIES OF WEST KENTUCKY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. TO THE EAST OF
THE WATCH OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY...MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WITH NO MAJOR FLOODING
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BEYOND THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 PM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     FLOOD            SEDALIA                 36.64N 88.61W
03/09/2016                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER SOME ROADWAYS, INCLUDING SEDALIA RD.

&&

GREGM