Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Aviation update.

UPDATE Issued at 1015 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

HiRes models are not helpful for early day convection. The NAM
may have had a slightly better handle overall. The longer
convection holds, the more fuel there will be, ahead of a weak PVA
region/disturbance that will move SE from IL/MO toward the area
through the day (seen on Wvapor/RAP data). It is/will be very
unstable. NAM Capes not unreasonable well in excess of 4000 J/kg
16-21z. Mid level lapse rates are "ok" around 6. NAM low level
lapse rates will exceed 9 C/km. So hail and strong winds are quite
likely with any storms that get organized. Question is where and
at what time. We lowered PoPs slightly given the hires models were
already overdone. But we used scattered terminology vs. chance.
Will be at or just below Heat Advisory criteria, so will hold on
that. Basically a lot of nowcasting/radar/ satellite at this
point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Some nocturnal convection moving northeast of EVV/OWB vicinity,
firing on H5 vort lobe advecting across lower Ohio river valley
this morning. It'll continue to shift off to the north and east
thru mid morning, with a relative lull otherwise, as main spill
of vort energy makes its way across upper Mississippi valley and
begins to drive cold front southeastward. We'll see this energy
activate showers/storms, along and in advance of boundary, late
this morning and into/thru the pm hours. A slgt risk of svr wx
will be possible with this energy's passage, which should be east
of the FA by 00Z Thursday. Lingering pops may be possible south
and east thru the evening, but the system is effectively winding
down by then. Today's heat/humidity will again allow heat indices
to approach/exceed the triple digits, but collab consensus was to
hold on advisories today with eyes toward another hot pm tmrw.

In the wake of the front's passage, we'll see strong ridging of
high pressure aloft just to our west, and a robust cyclone
barrelling down and across the mid/upper Ohio river valley just
to our east. We'll be caught in the transitionary nw flow in
between, which means drier air works in but not necessarily cooler
just yet. Thursday may see actual ambient temps as high or higher
than days past, but wet bulbs should start to nudge downward a
degree or two or three. Calculated heat indices may reach or
exceed headline cats, particularly western counties closer to the
ridge...so we'll have to monitor closely for advisory potential
and if so, exactly where to draw the line. That should become
clearer with time, so collab consensus is to punt forward.

The gradual downward adjustment in the air column continues with
subtlety Friday, with 80s returning for Highs and dew points
dropping into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

A high amplitude, southwest to northeast oriented mid-upper level
ridge will dominate the WFO PAH forecast area from Saturday
through next late Monday night. The ridge is forecast to flatten,
but maintain an expansive influence on the area until the
expanding influece of a large Eastern Canada low (near Hudson
Bay) generates a northwest flow and shear zone along the southern
edge of the westerlies. This shear zone, along with weak
southerly flow, will provide a focus for MCS activity along the
baroclinic zone starting as early as Tuesday, but should expand
southeastward with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Convection east of a line from KMVN to KPOF will continue through
the afternoon. We have an inclusion at KPAH/KEVV and KOWB early
this afternoon with strong wind gusts likely. Quiet weather
expected tonight through midday Thursday with light winds.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
307 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TODAY. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD SEVERE STORMS OCCUR.
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR MOST LOCALES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE HEAT INDEX THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN REACH TRIPLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCALES, AND SOME MAY SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE OZARKS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
06/15/2016                   MARSHALL           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG ROADWAYS. HEAVY RAIN
            AND STRONG WINDS REPORTED WITH STORMS.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
06/15/2016  E65 MPH          CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND ESTIMATED. PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
217 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
06/15/2016                   CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF 4TH AND OLIVE.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND GST     MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
06/15/2016  M55 MPH          CALLOWAY           KY   AWOS

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
221 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     TSTM WND GST     CANTON                  36.80N 87.96W
06/15/2016  M47 MPH          TRIGG              KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED ALONG THE HWY 80 BRIDGE AT MILE MARKER 63
            CROSSING LAKE BARKLEY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
223 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRDEALING             36.84N 88.22W
06/15/2016                   MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED.

&&

SMITTY