Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
652 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a nice tropical fetch of moisture from
the Tx Gulf Coast, northeastward into the lower Ohio river valley.
Over the ensuing 24-48 hours, we'll see waves of low pressure
eject and ride along the nearly stationary surface frontal
boundary that extends across SEMO/SRN IL/SWIN, where our current
FFA resides. Model sounding data yields historic 2+" PW's, so
highly efficient pcpn rates will continue to produce heavy, flood
inducing rainfall over the Watch area. These will occur in
"rounds", at least 1 and perhaps 2 rounds per 12 hour time
period. Overall, pops are sharply highest (near certain) in the
heart of the FFA, and taper to lowest chances (still likely),
over our southeastern most counties in the CWA. Likewise, will be
our storm total QPF, as we see an additional 2 to 4" in and near
the Watch area, making for a Storm total of 8-10+" possible,
adjacent/tapering to an additional 1 to 2" forecast amount over
our southeastern counties.

PW's remain high Tuesday, but the surface boundary may be sagging
a little southeastward by then, shifting the axis of rainfall
closer to areas that will not have experienced the higher amounts.
For this reason, collaborative consensus was to hold off on FFA
extension for now, but could see scenario where counties are added
or extended, thru the day Tuesday, in the near future.

Overall, Pops will wind down, though not disappear in entirety,
by Tue night (and beyond), as the boundary begins to disintegrate
and lose identity. PW's finally drop below 2" by midday Wed.

Clouds/convection will make forecast temps tricky, although
overall, we'll see their blanketing impact numbers more seasonal
vs extreme.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

Medium confidence in extended but low confidence in rain chances
Wednesday through Friday.

After Wednesday, weak ridging aloft and high pressure at the
surface will be the general consensus of model output for the last
couple days at least. With this scenario, could see diurnal
heating pop off some storms during the daylight hours but have a
difficult time buying into nighttime storms under this synoptic
scale scenario. However confidence does improve with this weekend
pops. An upper level trough will move through this weekend with a
surface reflection as a surface cold front passage. This appears
feasible with high pressure and cooler/drier air in its wake. So
expect a slight warming trend for the latter part of this week.
Then a cooling trend early next week in the cold fronts wake.
However we will expect another round of storms with the frontal
passage for sure.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2016

With a frontal boundary stalled in the area combined with deep
tropospheric moisture and periodic impulses of upper level
energy, VFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys and SHRA/TSRA will be common at all
sites through the period. There will be breaks throughout the
period but too difficult to pin down. Variable winds AOB 5 knots
early will gradually become southeast to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ILZ075>078-080>089-
     092-093.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>111.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
859 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
859 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE
WATCH PRODUCT FOR DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS OF
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL
BE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...OR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THOSE LOCATIONS ARE NOW
IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RELAY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE...OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
716 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

ILZ090-092>094-KYZ002>008-MOZ112-150100-
POPE-PULASKI-MASSAC-ALEXANDER-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-MARSHALL-LIVINGSTON-
BALLARD-GRAVES-MCCRACKEN-MISSISSIPPI-
716 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PULASKI...
SOUTHERN MASSAC...SOUTHEASTERN POPE...EASTERN ALEXANDER...WEST
CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHERN GRAVES...SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...
MCCRACKEN...CARLISLE...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN...BALLARD AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES...

AT 714 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WYATT MISSOURI TO NEAR MAYFIELD
KENTUCKY. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...METROPOLIS...CHARLESTON...CAIRO...LA CENTER...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...REIDLAND...LONE OAK...BROOKPORT...MOUNDS...
BARLOW...TAMMS...MOUND CITY...WYATT...LOVELACEVILLE...WEST PADUCAH...
WOODLAWN-OAKDALE AND HENDRON.

LAT...LON 3686 8940 3700 8936 3701 8931 3703 8935
      3727 8928 3717 8845 3667 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 206DEG 31KT 3688 8927 3678 8872

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
718 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE MOUNT VERNON       38.33N 88.90W
08/14/2016  M4.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   PUBLIC

            2 INCHES SO FAR TODAY, WITH 2 DAY STORM TOTAL UP TO 4.75
            INCHES ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF TOWN

&&

SP