Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.UPDATE...
The November 3, 2016 00 UTC TAF discussion follows...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Generally expect mostly VFR conditions to continue through the
TAF period. Scattered showers/storms across southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas will continue to expand
and develop northeastward through the evening. Brief MVFR to IFR
conditions will be possible with any thunderstorms. Gusty and
chaotic winds will also be possible. A cold front/northerly wind
shift will progress from northwest to southeast this evening.
MVFR ceilings may develop later tonight behind the front; however,
confidence is too low to include in TAFs except at KPNC--where
confidence is greatest. Expect northerly winds to continue through
the TAF period.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is focused on increasing precipitation
chances late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Currently, it's fairly uncomfortable for early November, 02/20z
surface observations reveal dew points well into the mid to upper
60s along with temperatures in the low 80s ahead of the surface
boundary that continues to slowly push eastward off the panhandles.
In response, ML CAPE values across the region are near 2000 to 2500
J/Kg. Earlier, around 19z, a few radar returns cropped up in far
southern Oklahoma, most likely driven by some pre-frontal isentropic
ascent around 305 to 310 K. Will likely see similar isolated
activity through the afternoon ahead of the front. Deep layer shear
across the region is relatively weak to modest, about 20 to 25 kts,
this is in part to weak 700mb flow aloft. However, HRRR soundings
from KFDR and KCDS reveal MLCAPE values approaching 3000 J/Kg
through 03/00z, along with steepening mid-level lapse rates of 6.5
to 7.5 C/Km. This is more than enough to result in rapid updraft
growth along the frontal boundary through this evening. In response,
scattered to isolated strong to severe storms are possible, capable
of severe hail, up to half dollars, and 60 to 70 mph wind gusts. Of
additional concern, into the evening and overnight, will be locally
heavy rainfall. 02/12z sounding from KOUN came back with 1.35 inches
of precipitable water this morning, which is well above the 90th
percentile for climatology.

Through 02/20z, a few updrafts have finally gone west of Childress
just off the Llano Estacado. The last few runs of the HRRR and the
NMM HiRes WRF have done fairly well with the initiation in West
Texas this afternoon. Expect this activity to gradually grow
upstream along the surface boundary eastward through the late
afternoon to early evening hours. Into the evening, some additional
isolated storms may go up along the frontal boundary late this
evening and overnight as it pushes eastward, into central Oklahoma,
from southwestern Oklahoma to the OKC metro and as far north as
Ponca City.

With respect to rainfall, the heaviest rainfall will develop across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. Amounts will range from a
half inch in south central Oklahoma to just over an inch in far
western north Texas. 7 day rainfall amounts are basically zero
across this area, with a few locations receiving under a trace to a
10th over that time period. Therefore, widespread flooding issues
are not anticipated, but locally heavy rainfall in the right
locations, could result in brief flooding of usual suspect areas.

For tomorrow into the weekend, expect relatively dry conditions
through Friday as brief ridging over the southern half of the plains
keeps the approaching western 500mb low parked over the desert
southwest. Into the weekend, rain chances return, primarily late on
Saturday into Sunday, with lingering chances through Tuesday as a
slow evolving 500mb trough lumbers eastward across the central U.S.
Temperatures during this period will be cooler, but still a few
degrees above normal for the time of year, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s each day.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  71  51  72 /  60  10   0   0
Hobart OK         59  71  52  70 /  50  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  71  56  70 /  60  30  10  10
Gage OK           50  72  42  73 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  71  46  73 /  40  10   0   0
Durant OK         66  78  59  76 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

11/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
350 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.
DAMAGING WIND UP TO 65 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE SEEN WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
MANY OF THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AGAIN...THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND INCREASE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/EM/11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
553 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GOULD               34.67N 99.83W
11/02/2016  M57 MPH          HARMON             OK   MESONET

&&

OUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

OKZ033-034-036-TXZ083-022330-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-JACKSON OK-HARDEMAN TX-
554 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...CENTRAL GREER...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES SOUTH OF VINSON TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLLIS TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF GOULD TO 6 MILES NORTH OF GOODLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANGUM...HOLLIS...ELDORADO...GOULD...DUKE...VINSON...GOODLETT...
MCQUEEN...MADGE AND MCKNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3454 9990 3468 9990 3491 9997 3503 9981
      3503 9979 3505 9978 3512 9969 3512 9967
      3494 9948 3475 9947 3444 9956 3431 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 229DEG 17KT 3484 9985 3475 9978 3460 9979 3443
9988

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

OKZ036-TXZ083>085-087-030015-
JACKSON OK-WILBARGER TX-KNOX TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
621 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON...WEST
CENTRAL WILBARGER...NORTHERN KNOX...HARDEMAN AND FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
10 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLETT TO 14 MILES WEST OF CROWELL TO 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHALK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUANAH...CROWELL...CHILLICOTHE...TRUSCOTT...GOODLETT...THALIA...
MARGARET...GILLILAND...MEDICINE MOUND...LAZARE...RAYLAND AND COPPER
BREAKS STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3431 10000
      3446 9948 3404 9943 3375 9951 3368 9999
      3383 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 243DEG 17KT 3419 9995 3396 9998 3376 10005

KURTZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

OKZ021-022-034>037-030030-
GREER OK-BECKHAM OK-TILLMAN OK-KIOWA OK-JACKSON OK-WASHITA OK-
632 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREER...SOUTHEASTERN BECKHAM...
NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN...WESTERN KIOWA...JACKSON AND WESTERN WASHITA
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES NORTH OF WILLOW TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANGUM TO NEAR
OLUSTEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...HOBART...MANGUM...GRANITE...BURNS FLAT...SENTINEL...TIPTON...
BLAIR...OLUSTEE...DILL CITY...LONE WOLF...ROOSEVELT...MARTHA...
ROCKY...WILLOW...ELMER...HEADRICK...FRIENDSHIP...HUMPHREYS AND DUKE.

LAT...LON 3547 9911 3547 9907 3507 9899 3450 9905
      3442 9960 3476 9958 3509 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 230DEG 28KT 3510 9950 3482 9946 3454 9947

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
702 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

OKZ023-024-030030-
CANADIAN OK-CADDO OK-
702 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CANADIAN AND EAST CENTRAL
CADDO COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF COGAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...CONCHO AND CEDAR LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9798 3543 9793 3537 9806 3538 9809
      3536 9810 3528 9829 3545 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 242DEG 9KT 3541 9817

MAHALE