Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall will be main concern next 36hrs.

Large upper low over Wyoming/Colorado will continue to move
slowly east this afternoon into this evening before lifting
northeast into the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Models
still depicting a large piece of this low remaining behind,
retrograding and closing off somewhere near the baja tomorrow.

As this occurs, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Although
overall wind fields will be rather weak, sufficient instability
will be present late today into this evening for a few strong to
perhaps severe storms across approximately the western half of
the CWA.

As the northern part of the upper low moves through the
Northern Plains, a cold front will push south through Oklahoma
into Texas during the day on Sunday. This will bring cooler and
drier air into the area, which will limit the rain/thunder to Red
River valley by Sunday night.

Drier and cooler air will then overspread the area, resulting in
acouple of pleasant and more fall-like days early in the week.
Hightemperatures Monday/Tuesday will only climb into the 70s with
nighttime temperatures dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s
byTuesday morning.

The upper low over the baja is expected to lift northeast
through southern and central Rockies into the plains by late in
the week. This may result in a few showers across northwest
Oklahoma by late Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm back to into the low/mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  75  57  74 /  90  80  30  10
Hobart OK         68  74  57  73 /  80  80  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  78  59  74 /  80  90  50  30
Gage OK           61  71  50  75 /  60  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  73  53  75 /  90  70  10   0
Durant OK         72  84  63  77 /  40  70  40  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

04/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1258 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10
PM. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS AN AREA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER AND MOORE... TO DUNCAN OKLAHOMA... TO WICHITA FALLS AND
ARCHER CITY TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK... LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MONDAY. FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

OKZ005-006-009>011-014-015-242100-
ROGER MILLS OK-ALFALFA OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-
WOODWARD OK-
321 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...
NORTHWESTERN ALFALFA...WESTERN MAJOR...WOODS...NORTHWESTERN DEWEY...
SOUTHERN ELLIS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES NORTHWEST OF DACOMA TO 6 MILES EAST OF QUINLAN TO NEAR
CAMARGO TO 3 MILES NORTH OF ROLL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING PROLIFIC LIGHTNING... MOVE TO SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY... LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE EVEN WHERE IT IS NOT RAINING. IF
YOU HEAR THUNDER OR SEE A FLASH... MOVE INTO AN INCLOSED BUILDING
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVA...MOORELAND...WAYNOKA...VICI...FREEDOM...CAMARGO...SHARON...
MUTUAL...ANGORA...ALABASTER CAVERNS STATE PARK...CRAWFORD...
QUINLAN...CHESTER...HARMON...ROLL...CAPRON...CESTOS...AVARD...
HOPETON AND CAMP HOUSTON.

LAT...LON 3675 9855 3649 9862 3596 9913 3572 9975
      3605 9993 3626 9950 3655 9916 3682 9921
      3700 9861 3700 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 222DEG 15KT 3673 9862 3648 9893 3605 9929 3584
9971

KURTZ