Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
200 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is placed on precipitation chances today and
tonight, mainly ongoing convection and additional chances this
evening.

This afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have cropped up in south
central Oklahoma recently, near the I-35 corridor and south of the
Arbuckles. 18Z surface analysis of Oklahoma Mesonet obs suggest a
weak, but noticable region of surface convergence in this area. Dew
points in the upper 60s/lower 70s has aided in SBCAPE values around
3000 J/Kg focused along this boundary. Model soundings suggest an
uncapped environment, but deep layer shear is paltry, 10 to 20 kts,
given weak mid-level wind fields. Therefore, expect limited severe
potential, and given radar trends over the last hour, convection has
been fairly steady state. Pwats remain hefty given the time of
year, and KTLX rainfall rates are 2 to 4 inches in hour in isolated
locations. Therefore, expect locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
to be the only concerns moving forward with this activity through
the afternoon.

Into the evening, a short wave trough is evident on latest water
vapor imagery, lifting east and northeast off the western high
plains of NM/CO this morning and currently crossing the Panhandles.
In response, the diffuse frontal boundary which was the focus for
development last night, has continued to slowly lift northward,
evident by a broad surface trough centered over Kansas, southwest
into the Panhandles. This boundary will be a focusing point for
scattered development this afternoon/evening. Some scattered showers
and isolated thunder has already developed over the southeastern
Texas Panhandle, along the southwestern OK/TX border, with weaker
echos on regional radar through northwestern OKlahoma into Kansas.
Expect this activity to continue through the afternoon off and on.
Additionally, across northwestern Oklahoma into southwestern Kansas,
expect scattered to isolated development to increase at times along
the boundary, given its better proximity to the shortwave. Modest
instability, 1000 to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 20 to 30 kts deep layer
shear may support one or two strong updrafts in far northwest
Oklahoma. Primary concern would be damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall, similar to yesterday.

For the weekend, with the southern plains wedged between a broad,
lumbering ridge to the east and a trough to the west there will be
low chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunder
near daily. The tough part will be locking down where any boundaries
reside or the influence from subtle short waves traversing the
region. Slight chances for showers and thunder will continue into
and through next week as the synoptic pattern remains, for lack of a
better term, messy. In short, the broad 500mb ridge will continue to
reside over the eastern U.S., leaving the southern plains tapped
into the flow of Gulf moisture. So, overall, somedays you may stay
dry, some days you may catch a shower.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  91  70  91 /  10  20  10  20
Hobart OK         70  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  94  71  93 /  10  20  10  20
Gage OK           66  91  67  91 /  20  20  30  40
Ponca City OK     70  91  71  90 /  30  30  30  20
Durant OK         71  92  71  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271115-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1146 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE MARGINAL RISK AREA EXISTS NORTH OF A PONCA CITY TO ENID TO
CHEYENNE LINE.

TIMING..
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME
SEVERE. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING COULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

OKZ041>043-046-047-050-051-261900-
CARTER OK-COAL OK-PONTOTOC OK-LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-MURRAY OK-
JOHNSTON OK-
125 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...
SOUTHWESTERN COAL...PONTOTOC...NORTHEASTERN LOVE...MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 122 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES NORTHWEST OF STONEWALL TO NEAR LAKE TEXOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9705 3386 9707 3484 9676 3488 9640
      3402 9659 3401 9662 3390 9662 3392 9667
      3384 9670 3383 9676 3387 9680 3385 9685
      3387 9689 3396 9692 3395 9698 3396 9698
      3386 9701 3381 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 220DEG 11KT 3470 9659 3385 9680

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
303 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

OKZ032-043-047-048-052-262045-
ATOKA OK-COAL OK-BRYAN OK-HUGHES OK-JOHNSTON OK-
303 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ATOKA...COAL...BRYAN...
HUGHES AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR HORNTOWN TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLBERT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BECOME
SEVERE...INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...SO IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE
ALERT TO THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9612 3384 9615 3380 9616 3382 9617
      3380 9618 3382 9658 3516 9633 3524 9598
      3515 9598 3505 9609 3468 9609 3468 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 262DEG 23KT 3509 9620 3389 9643

CMS