Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
313 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convective inhibition and lack of focus will be the main limiting
factors for storm development this afternoon and evening. These
features will be least effective over the northwest half of
Oklahoma, and this is where we have 20 to 30% probabilities of
rainfall for this evening and tonight. Any storms that do form
will have sufficient instability available to generate marginal
severe weather. Relatively slow movement and high levels of
moisture availability will also provide some risk of flooding.

A weak front will provide more focus tomorrow, and continuing
instability with weaker inhibition suggests somewhat higher
chances for rain/storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.

By Friday, ever-weakening wind shear will limit the ability of
storms to organize, but there will still be instability available.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the upper-level flow
will not change much, and rainfall will be highly dependent on
small-scale features that are not really predictable this far out.

A tropical system is forecast to develop in the western Atlantic
over the next few days. Based on the last several medium-range
model runs, it appears improbable that the system will
significantly affect Oklahoma or north Texas, but we will continue
to monitor the system in case there are any meaningful changes in
its progress.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  93  70  90 /  20  20  20  30
Hobart OK         70  92  68  91 /  30  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  20
Gage OK           66  86  64  88 /  60  50  60  20
Ponca City OK     72  90  68  88 /  30  40  50  30
Durant OK         73  94  73  89 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

04/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK EXISTS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO LAMONT
TO NORTH OF PONCA CITY. A MARGINAL RISK SURROUNDS THE SLIGHT RISK,
AND EXISTS NORTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS TO WEATHERFORD TO
KINGFISHER TO PERRY.

TIMING...
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM
AROUND 5 PM TO 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING... AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A NEARBY COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/KURTZ

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