Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and fairly light surface wind are expected to
continue at all sites.

There is a chance MVFR/IFR conditions with BR may affect parts of
northern Oklahoma (KPNC, KWWR, and KGAG) now through 18 UTC. Did
not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Although ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA are possible at all sites except KSPS,
will not mention as chances remain too low to mention at
this time.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

UPDATE...
Expanded the precipitation chances further south overnight through
tomorrow morning. Deep moisture is present with PWAT values
exceeding the 90th percentile and approaching the climatological
maximum. 1.92 inches was observed on this evening's sounding from
Norman. The sounding is quite moist through 500 mb. Subtle
perturbations aloft have likely been the impetus for overnight
development and the the pattern has changed little from the past few
nights. Very subtle ascent is indicated in short term model guidance
in the mid-levels, near the top of this moist layer looking at 315-
320k surfaces, although models are struggling with spatial
characteristics of this and there are inconsistencies among the
guidance. For that reason, there remains considerable uncertainty
for the overnight forecast through tomorrow morning. We took a broad
brush approach with low probabilities generally across the north and
the east. Further southwest, convection is not expected given
proximity to the upper ridge and comparatively higher mid-level
heights. We are also monitoring a small convective complex now
moving into the far western Oklahoma Panhandle. This system appears
to have a well established cold pool and several CAMs support its
continued eastward progression. The environment north of a weak
surface boundary that extends across our forecast area is quite
moist with elevated instability expected to last through much of the
night. Therefore, we have highest probabilities in the northwest and
north central.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The next seven days' forecast can be summarized as: "hot days,
warm nights, slight chances of showers and a few thunderstorms
from time to time."

The upper-level ridge will remain over the region through next
Thursday, maintaining essentially the same weather situation
through the entire period. There are indications that the ridge
will shift away from the southern Plains late next week (late
Thursday or on Friday), which will increase the chance for rain at
that time.

We have retained the Heat Advisory for a few counties tomorrow,
although it will again be rather marginal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  75 101  76 102 /  10  10   0  10
Gage OK           69  96  73  98 /  30  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     74  93  73  96 /  30  30  20  20
Durant OK         77 100  76 101 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ031-032-042-
     043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

99/17/17

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

OKZ008-060600-
KAY OK-
1235 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KAY COUNTY UNTIL 100
AM CDT...

AT 1233 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
NEWKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3678 9709 3696 9710 3699 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 270DEG 15KT 3686 9697

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

OKZ007-008-060800-
GRANT OK-KAY OK-
226 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND
NORTHWESTERN KAY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 223 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
BRAMAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3678 9722 3687 9754 3700 9754 3700 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 285DEG 16KT 3694 9745

MAXWELL