Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
July 20th 00Z TAF discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Similar to last
night, few to scattered cumulus will persist through sunrise,
along with some high cirrus interspersed across the region. Winds
will remain out of the south, a little breezy through sunset, and
persist overnight through tomorrow.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather through the
end of this week with only isolated chances of showers/storms.

On Wednesday, heat index values are forecast to be
near heat advisory critera across north central Oklahoma.
Consequently, went ahead and extended the heat advisory through
tomorrow afternoon. Both the NAM and GFS erode any MLCIN in the
afternoon. The latest GFS even has a QPF signal across eastern
Oklahoma. Therefore, anticipate at least isolated showers and
storms once again tomorrow afternoon.

The chance of showers/storms looks lower for Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday as the atmosphere is forecast to become more capped as low-
levels slowly dry. Temperatures will be hotter Friday and
Saturday with warmer 850 mb/low-level thermal fields. However,
slightly drier air may mitigate heat index values from becoming
too excessive.

For Sunday and beyond, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that
the mid-level ridge will weaken/retrograde with a weakness/lowered
heights across the Plains. Consequently, temperatures may cool
slightly with at least a slight chance of showers/storms starting
Sunday. The latest ECMWF has backed off a highly amplified ridge
to the west. So the chance of signficant/widespread rain has
decreased.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  96  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  98  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         76  97  76  96 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     019-020-026.

TX...None.
&&

09/04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.HEAT...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE MAINLY BE IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IF STORMS FORM...THEY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.HEAT...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES AT
TIMES...MAINLY EAST OF I-35.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
729 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

OKZ046-050-051-200100-
CARTER OK-LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-
729 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...
NORTHEASTERN LOVE AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 720 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
LEBANON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3404 9721 3415 9697 3390 9687 3389 9689
      3394 9690 3396 9692 3394 9697 3395 9698
      3396 9698 3394 9700 3389 9698 3388 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 72DEG 2KT 3397 9699

WR