Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
942 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Minor changes to evening and overnight forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Adjusted POPs slightly to account for current convection and
anticipated convection overnight. Do not expect a big uptick in
convective intensity late this evening and overnight, but could
see expansion in areas of showers and storms over northwest and
west-central Oklahoma as low-amplitude s/wv moves south over
eastern CO and western KS. This could allow current convection
west of OKC continue a slow progression south and southwest with
additional convection moving in from southwest KS and eastern
Panhandles. Little change to rest of forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the early evening over
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas. With a large variety of low-
level outflow boundaries on which to form, it is not possible to
forecast explicitly where new storms will be, except to say they
will be mainly close to where storms are currently occurring. An
organized storm system is moving southeast from western Kansas,
and this set of storms is likely to affect northwest Oklahoma a
few hours either side of midnight, then continue moving southeast
while becoming less organized and weakening. There will be a
chance of additional development over southwest Oklahoma and north
Texas during the morning and afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions through the next 24 hours, although some temporary
visibility restrictions in BR cannot be ruled out at KGAG and KWWR
toward sunrise.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is near daily shower and thunderstorm
chances.

Currently, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
develop across portions of southern Oklahoma into northern Texas.
Born from a developing cumulus field that grew through the late
morning along a remnant outflow left over from this morning. Buoyed
by 2000 to 2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE, updrafts will continue to crop up
through the afternoon and evening. The risk for severe weather is
low, overall, with weak mid-level support and paltry deep layer
shear. The primary concern with this activity will be locally heavy
rainfall, which could lead to flooding, along with the potential for
gusty winds.

For tonight, thunderstorm development is well under way over the
northern high plains WY/NE/CO/KS. This activity will evolve into a
complex through the evening and overnight hours. Indications are a
decent shear cold pool balance will develop, with an MCS
propagating south/southeast across western Kansas overnight toward
northwestern Oklahoma. With the 500mb ridge persisting over the Four
Corners/Inter-mountain West, the 850-500mb thicknesses begin to
diverge over the Southern Plains, which indicates the complex that
makes Oklahoma may already be decaying as it approaches by daybreak.
This scenario is reflected in the mesoscale guidance from the
HRRR/HRRRX. Although precipitation is expected, coverage and
duration are still in question. Expect scattered coverage of showers
and thunderstorms to slide southward along the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle border, with isolated convection possible as far east as I-
35. Isolated to scattered activity will continue through the day.

For the remainder of the week, the precipitation forecast remains
active, with chances near daily, especially across northern Oklahoma
as our region remains under a northwesterly flow regime. What makes
this forecast difficult are the numerous local effects that will
come into play each day. Synoptically, mid and long range guidance
are in decent agreement, with thunderstorms developing off the
western high plains near daily and moving east/southeast across
portions of Oklahoma Wednesday and Thursday. However, similar to
yesterday and today, situated under a warm moist environment, any
remnant outflows lingering from the previous days convection will
serve as a focus for new development each day. The next chance for
appreciable precipitation will be Thursday Night into Friday. A
stout short wave trough will swing across the Great Lakes Region,
with a decent surface trough extending west and southwest. This
boundary will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development over the
central plains Thursday before developing into a complex and moving
southward into Oklahoma, toward the Red River by Friday Afternoon.
Synoptically, guidance has shown consistency, but exact timing and
impacts will be highly dependent on previous activity and the
mesoscale environment.

For the weekend, precipitation chances continue, primarily focused
north of I-40 as the southern and central plains end up under a
zonal flow regime.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1150 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

AVIATION...27/18Z TAF Issuance...
Scattered to Broken mid level ceilings will remain spread across
much of the region through the period. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the afternoon across portions of
southern Oklahoma, near the Red River. This activity looks to
remain away from the TAF sites, but will impact area airfields.
Overnight, thunderstorms developing over the high plains of
Nebraska will move southward across Kansas approaching north and
northwestern Oklahoma. Given confidence in timing, will continue
PROB30s for sites across western Oklahoma late in the period.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Showers continue to slowly drift southward across north central
and central OK. Very little lightning is being detected with this
activity so opted not to include tempos for TSRA at the moment.
Expect additional development late this morning near SPS so
mentioned VCTS. Outside of the precip, expect VFR vsbys and cigs.
Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms will move into NW OK from
the north and perhaps spread southward all the way into SW OK. For
this reason, PROB30 groups have been included for many of the
terminals after ~05Z. Confidence is fairly high that they'll at
least impact WWR and GAG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  90  70  91 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         72  93  70  95 /  40  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  93  72  95 /  30  30  10  10
Gage OK           68  90  68  93 /  60  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     70  91  69  91 /  20  10  10  20
Durant OK         74  91  72  93 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

11/23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

OKZ015-016-280300-
CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-
926 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CUSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 924 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TALOGA TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF THOMAS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THOMAS...OAKWOOD...PUTNAM AND FAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 9921 3606 9906 3593 9864 3568 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 25DEG 13KT 3593 9885

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N PUTNAM              35.90N 98.97W
06/27/2016  M63 MPH          DEWEY              OK   MESONET

&&

DW

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