Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
238 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Daily convection will be main concern with some severe weather
and potential flooding the main impacts moving forward.

Next couple of days weak sfc boundary(s), outflow boundaries
and weak upper support will be sufficient for scattered
convection. Best chance today will be near low level boundary
across northern Oklahoma. A secondary area could be in southwest
OK and north TX as upper low cont to spin across west Texas.

This weak sfc boundary still appears to be present on Monday, a
bit farther south, and will once again act as a focus for
convective development throughout the day. Current atmosphere is
one with plenty of instability but very little, if any shear. So
storms will be slow-moving and efficient rain producers. So heavy
rainfall and wind will be main concerns with a secondary hail
threat.

As we move forward through the work week, we see upper ridge
shift back westward and northwest flow develop across the
Southern Plains. This will likely lead to nearly daily chances
for storms across the area. Although some severe risk will be
present, main concern may turn into a water issue, in the form of
flooding. Still a bit early to determine exactly where the
greatest threat may end up occurring. However, currently would
appear northeast half of Oklahoma would be most likely area to see
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  93  72  90 /  30  30  50  30
Hobart OK         72  95  72  92 /  30  20  50  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  95  74  91 /  20  20  40  40
Gage OK           68  92  68  90 /  50  20  40  20
Ponca City OK     72  90  71  89 /  60  40  40  20
Durant OK         75  94  74  90 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

04/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-270745-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
244 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS EAST AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEAR FREEDOM TO TALOGA TO MULHALL TO MANNFORD.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH
SUNSET. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS... THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA... WITH A CONTINUED CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH... ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNSET. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

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