Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front with scattered thunderstorms will pass through
oklahoma this evening. winds will turn gusty to the north and
northeast, and mvfr ceilings are expected to form over central
Oklahoma tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A prefrontal trough continues to make its way southward into NW OK
this afternoon. Cumulus are becoming more numerous along this
trough where inhibition is limited and mlcape has climbed to
around 1-1.5K J/kg, thanks to dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.
Widely scattered storms are expected to develop before sunset and
then track southward overnight. A damaging wind and hail threat
will be possible with dewpoint depressions around 25 to 30 degrees
and steep mid level lapse rates in place. The best moisture
convergence still appears it will be over western and southwestern
OK through this evening so expect the highest coverage there.

Subsidence, through most of the layer, will follow the front
into the early morning hours tomorrow across our FA before subtle
WAA returns around 700 MB over northern OK through tomorrow
afternoon. A few showers/storms will remain possible here. WAA
will then increase substantially sunday as an 850 MB baroclinic
zone lifts northward over I-40 during the day and a mid level
perturbation moves under the ridge axis over the Rockies and into
the Southern Plains. Rain chances will increase as a result and
with cold air remaining in place, some locations may not climb out
of the 50s during the day Sun. Severe weather is not expected
given very little instability, although some localized heavy
rainfall may be possible based on moisture profiles. Precipitation
chances will continue through the work week with a mid to upper
trough remaining west of our area, although higher chances will
briefly shift east with the mid level thetae ridge late monday
night through early tuesday morning. heavier rain chances may
return to the Red River/western north TX by Tue and Wed, perhaps
continuing through the end of the work week before the trough
finally passes overhead. localized flash flooding appears
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  61  49  60 /  40  20  40  60
Hobart OK         52  62  48  58 /  50  20  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  57  64  50  62 /  60  20  40  70
Gage OK           46  61  45  59 /  20  20  40  50
Ponca City OK     46  63  46  63 /  50  30  20  50
Durant OK         58  68  52  64 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/09/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
A SLIGHT RISK COVERS AN AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA
CITY AND ENID... TO WATONGA AND WEATHERFORD... TO ALTUS
OKLAHOMA... TO QUANAH TEXAS. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS AN AREA
SOUTHEAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE
AND ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO
1 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
OK...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE KEEPS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ/EM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
752 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             4 N GOODLETT            34.39N 99.88W
05/13/2016  M1.25 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED FROM KOLJ RADIO

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW BUTLER             35.58N 99.25W
05/13/2016  M58 MPH          CUSTER             OK   MESONET

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKZ017-023-024-140145-
CANADIAN OK-CADDO OK-BLAINE OK-
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CANADIAN...NORTH
CENTRAL CADDO AND SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 804 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HINTON...GEARY...BRIDGEPORT AND GREENFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 9855 3581 9844 3555 9813 3546 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 328DEG 21KT 3572 9846

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
809 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKZ017-140200-
BLAINE OK-
809 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 807 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EAGLE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATONGA...CANTON...HITCHCOCK AND EAGLE CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9821 3573 9821 3572 9834 3594 9864
      3608 9863
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 305DEG 25KT 3598 9851

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKZ025-028-029-140200-
OKLAHOMA OK-MCCLAIN OK-CLEVELAND OK-
815 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 814 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3566 9767 3536 9737 3527 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 331DEG 24KT 3555 9769

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKZ033-034-036-140145-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-JACKSON OK-
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HARMON...SOUTH CENTRAL
GREER AND WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 820 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
VINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 9998 3492 9982 3463 9940 3451 9973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 318DEG 36KT 3481 9984

WR