Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/WIND/PRECIP FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS THE
DRYLINE QUICKLY MIXES TO THE EAST. THE AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE IS
EVEN DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...SO OPTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THESE DEWPOINTS MAY NEED BE DROPPED EVEN
FURTHER DUE TO DEEP MIXING THAT IS NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CONSEQUENTLY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONALLY...INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN
4-5 PM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55-65 KNOTS WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT
SOME TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCTION TO BELOW
ONE MILE BUT DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF THIS LOW IN TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION...
THERE IS PATCHY STRATUS AFFECTING KOKC.. KOUN AND KLAW THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH BLOWING DUST THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE... THE STRONG WINDS THEMSELVES AND
WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TODAY AND A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
ISSUES EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HIGH TODAY. DRYLINE IS
MIXING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT
DROPPING 6 DEGREES AT CANADIAN TEXAS IN THE LAST HOUR. THE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOON WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. AS USUAL... NAM DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WAY TOO
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY TO THE MUCH DRIER
ECMWF... RAP AND HRRR SOLUTIONS IN THE DEWPOINT GRIDS. THESE
DEWPOINT FORECASTS BRING THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL KEEP THAT GEOGRAPHY AS IS WITH THIS PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP.

WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG ISSUE...EVEN MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. WITH
DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIR... WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO APPROACH HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND WILL UPGRADE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
AND WILL KEEP THAT IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS AND/OR TIMES THAT THE
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT. THE WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW... BUT WILL KEEP THE
WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 12Z FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  38  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         77  37  61  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  41  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           69  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     78  35  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         80  43  61  39 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-
     021>024-033>038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>042-
     044>046-050.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ004>019-021>024-033>038.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ020-025>032-039>048-
     050>052.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>085-087.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ086-088>090.

&&

10/25

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